Who's Winning the Race for Congress?

With just over two weeks to go until the midterm elections, Republicans reeling in a sour national environment have begun pulling spending out of tough territory, essentially cutting their losses in some races in an effort to rescue others.

North Carolina appears to be out. Kansas is in. Some House incumbents in New Jersey and Iowa are now on their own, while others in places like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are receiving fresh infusions of national cash.

But even as the battleground moves into redder territory, Republicans see some signs of hope.

Polls are tightening in three Senate races in which Democrats have enjoyed narrow but consistent polling leads: Texas, Ohio and Michigan. And, thanks to a cascade of outside money, Republicans have ample resources to keep hammering their opponents in those states and beyond. Still, Democrats believe that momentum and time are on their side.

The Battle for the Senate

On Oct. 1, Brent Robertson, the chief of staff for Senator Roger Marshall of Kansas, told other Republican chiefs of staff at a private lunch in Washington that Mr. Marshall's team had things under control in his unexpectedly tight re-election fight, according to a person in the room, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe a private discussion. In 10 days' time, he promised, Kansas wouldn't be a problem. (Robertson did not respond to requests for comment.)

That is not how things have panned out. Kansas remains squarely part of the unusually large map of tossup races. Republicans' main super PAC has now spent or reserved more than $11.6 million shoring up Marshall, who has struggled with fund-raising in the face of a stiff challenge from Adam Hamilton, a Democratic pastor.