What will a Democratic Congress mean for Ukraine?

With Donald Trump retaining control of foreign policy, lawmakers will use legislative tools to try to support Kyiv

While Donald Trump's party suffered a stinging defeat in midterm elections this week, his efforts to end the war in Ukraine continue as negotiators from the US, Russia and Ukraine are set to meet in Abu Dhabi next week.

With Democrats now in control of both chambers of Congress, lawmakers are looking to use their spending and oversight powers to bolster support for Ukraine and impose further sanctions on the Russian economy. Democrats on Capitol Hill are looking to put together a new package of security assistance for Kyiv, which one Democratic aide on the House foreign affairs committee put to be in the range of $15bn.

The Democrats' victory comes as Ukraine faces what is likely to be its most difficult winter of the war. Russia has systematically attacked the country's energy infrastructure while the Patriot interceptor missiles needed to defend Ukraine are in short supply.

Energy assistance is "really, really high on our list" during the lame-duck period, said the Democratic aide on the committee.

Lawmakers are likely to use the annual defence policy bill -- NDAA -- which must be passed before the end of this Congress as a vehicle for assistance to Kyiv.

Melinda Haring, senior adviser to the advocacy group Razom for Ukraine, said: "I expect to see Ukraine's champions slip in amendments in the NDAA process on a couple of things: on sanctions, on intel support, on interceptors, and then on Starlink and Starfield."

A top priority for Democrats in the new Congress will be to amend the Russia sanctions legislation, named after the late South Carolina senator Lindsey Graham, committee aides said. The law, which passed with broad bipartisan support, mandates financial sanctions on Russia's defence and energy sectors.

But last month Trump invoked a broad waiver, exempting Moscow from further sanctions, just after agreeing a deal with Vladimir Putin to release Russian diesel on to global energy markets.

"We're going to fix the Graham bill," said a second Democratic aide on the committee. "A year and a half was spent trying to get sanctions on Russia and they were waived away," they said.

Without a two-thirds majority in both chambers, Democratic lawmakers cannot prevent Trump from vetoing legislation in the absence of support from across the aisle, but committee aides say they will seek to strengthen oversight of Elon Musk's Starlink satellite communications network, which Ukraine uses. The service experienced an unexplained slowdown last month, which interfered with its defences against Russian attacks.

A Democratic aide on the Senate foreign relations committee said the panel had informed Musk that he must preserve all documents relating to the slowdown and is writing to ports, banks and entities involved in Trump's diesel deal with Russia.

Democrats are also looking to use their oversight and subpoena powers to conduct a range of investigations into the Trump administration's foreign policy and the business interests of the president's family.

Scrutinising the business interests of Steve Witkoff and Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner, the president's envoys for talks on Ukraine and Iran, is another priority.

Democratic lawmakers investigated and impeached Trump in his first term over accusations that he leveraged military aid to Ukraine in exchange for damaging information on his predecessor Joe Biden, which deepened the president's antipathy towards Kyiv.

"[The investigations] were very political. They were very partisan," said Bill Taylor, former US ambassador to Ukraine who was a witness during the impeachment hearings. "Investigations can come," he added, but "Ukraine needs support now".

The White House said in a statement that "President Trump, Special Envoy Witkoff, and Jared Kushner remain focused on the urgent work of ending the war in Ukraine, advancing the President's Gaza peace plan, and creating the conditions for lasting peace and stability."

"The administration welcomes constructive engagement with Congress and will respond to legitimate oversight inquiries through the appropriate channels."

Ukraine has long enjoyed strong bipartisan support in Congress. But many of Kyiv's Republican champions -- including senators Thom Tillis, Mitch McConnell and Susan Collins -- are either retiring or stepping down after losing their seats in the elections, and finding new supporters will be crucial to convening a veto-proof supermajority in Congress.

"There's going to need to be a process of finding new champions on the Republican side," said Haring of Razom for Ukraine.

In the meantime, Ukraine is treading carefully. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in an interview released on Thursday that he hoped the new Congress would renew talks "about strong financial support for Ukraine or providing Ukraine with weapons".

"I don't think anything will change radically, foreign policy is still the president's prerogative," said Oleksandr Merezhko, an MP in Zelenskyy's ruling party and the chair of the Ukrainian parliament's foreign affairs committee.

He added: "I just want things not to deteriorate further, by which I mean the US lifting more sanctions on Russia or making new deals."