Vučić's defeat opens door for Serbia to reheat frigid EU ties

Also in this newsletter: Meloni's electoral overhaul faces legal challenge

Good morning. A student opposition movement has defeated Serbia's strongman leader Aleksandar Vučić, in a seismic election result that will ripple across the Balkans and throughout Europe, and reshape the regional heavyweight's future.

Today, our correspondent on the ground in Belgrade brings us more from last night's historic vote, and our team in Rome report on the legal challenge to Giorgia Meloni's recent overhaul of the Italian electoral system.

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Sea change

The defeat of Serbian nationalist strongman leader Aleksandar Vučić has kindled hopes of a more pro-European direction for the Balkan linchpin, after years of nonchalance in Belgrade towards the country's theoretical EU membership path, writes Marton Dunai.

Context: Serbia is an EU candidate country but made little progress under Vučić's rule as president. His bid to maintain power as prime minister failed in yesterday's election, forcing him to concede defeat shortly after polls closed.

The grassroots Student List movement, which is forecast to have won up to 140 of the Serbian parliament's 250 seats, did not make advancing the country's EU ambitions one of its key election messages. But its promises to strengthen the rule of law reforms and anti-corruption measures targeting the Vučić regime chime with Brussels' to-do list.

European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen and European Council president António Costa congratulated Student List last night.

"We stand ready to support reforms on the rule of law, media freedom, the fight against corruption and strong democratic institutions, and to work together to advance Serbia's future in the European Union," they said in a joint statement.

Marta Kos, the EU's enlargement commissioner, said: "A new chapter can begin for Serbia. The door to the EU is open, and we are ready to move forward together."

Vučić was the Balkans' most pro-Russian leader who cultivated Russian President Vladimir Putin's support and, after casting his vote yesterday, said he looked forward to "increase and strengthen the level of our co-operation" with Moscow if he won.

His defeat came as Bulgaria's incumbent president Iliana Yotova won a slim victory in the first round of that country's presidential election. Yotova, who has advocated re-engagement with Moscow, performed far worse than polls had forecast, with pro-western rival Andrey Gyurov only a few per cent behind.

In Serbia, many drew parallels with the ousting of longtime strongman and Putin ally Viktor Orbán from power in Hungary earlier this year.

Péter Magyar, who defeated Orbán with a grassroots anti-corruption movement similar to Serbia's, congratulated Student List leaders in a phone call last night, adding: "I assured them of Hungary's support. I was delighted to hear how much strength our victory in April had given them."

Sandro Gozi, a liberal MEP and secretary-general of the European Democratic Party, said Vučić "had become the greatest obstacle" to Serbia's "European future", but that the result meant "Belgrade is closer to Brussels".

"An extraordinary victory for democracy, for freedom and for the future of Serbia," Gozi added.

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Meloni's ballot battle

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni pushed a controversial overhaul of Italy's electoral system through parliament earlier this month. But today, civil society groups backed by more than 100 lawyers are challenging the new law in court, write Amy Kazmin and Giuliana Ricozzi.

Context: The new law introduces proportional representation with an unusual "majority bonus", awarding extra parliamentary seats to the winning alliance to ensure a governing majority, provided it secures at least 42 per cent of the vote.

To qualify, parties must announce their joint candidate for prime minister before the election.

Meloni insists the system will bring political stability to a country plagued by government crises. But critics say it is designed to boost her re-election prospects and undermine the president's constitutional power to appoint a prime minister.

"Under a normal parliamentary system, the prime minister is chosen after seeing how the elections turned out,'' said attorney Pietro Adami, who helped draft the lawsuit for the recently established Network for a Free and Equal Vote.

Meloni has previously pushed for a directly elected prime minister, which would require a constitutional amendment. Critics see the new law as a backdoor route to the same goal.

"This reform seeks to introduce a sneaky method for electing the government and, above all, the prime minister," Adami said.

Challenges will be filed in 29 courts across Italy, with lawyers hoping at least one reaches the Constitutional Court before next year's general election.

"We hope that the political parties will not call early elections," said Adami, "to avoid a ruling by the Constitutional Court."

What to watch today

* French, German, British, Polish and Italian defence ministers meet in Paris.

* Finland's President Alexander Stubb visits the College of Europe in Bruges, Belgium.

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