Trump, Netanyahu and the politics of escalation against Iran

Electoral defeat for the leaders of Israel and the US may not stand in the way of plans for a renewed assault

The oil price hit $117 last week. US President Donald Trump seems to think that this is all the fault of Ukraine's leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy. But the markets appear more concerned by the prospect of an escalation of war in the Middle East.

Unfortunately, the market reaction is rational. The signs are that the US and Israel are poised for a renewed assault on Iran, soon after the midterm elections in America next week.

The joint US-Israeli attack on Iran in February -- which began with the assassination of the country's leadership -- failed to achieve its goal of toppling the Islamic republic. Even if the US and Israel widen their target list and use even more destructive weaponry, it is still unlikely that an intensified campaign would achieve regime change or force major concessions from Iran.

The more probable result is that the Iranians will hit back hard. All the targets that Iran or its allies have struck in recent months -- the infrastructure of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states, US military bases in the region and ships going through the Strait of Hormuz -- remain within range. The secondary effects of intensified Iranian attacks on energy prices and the world economy are predictable.

Iran also has escalatory options that it has not yet reached for -- such as attacks on water desalination plants and undersea communications cables. Some serious analysts have even floated the possibility that it could launch a ground offensive against US bases in Bahrain or Kuwait.

So why take the risk? The answer is that neither Trump nor Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel's prime minister, seem able to accept the fact that their military campaign has failed.

There is no sign that they have a coherent plan for victory. Instead, they are fuelled by the hope that a few more savage blows will force Iran to back down -- reopening the Strait of Hormuz unconditionally and surrendering its stock of highly enriched uranium.

Politically, Trump and Netanyahu find themselves in curiously similar situations. Both face imminent elections that are likely to go badly for them. Both are going to the polls against the backdrop of the failure of the Iran campaign.

But the war has played very differently in the politics of the US and Israel. It is overwhelmingly unpopular in the US -- where it is associated with rising prices and a loss of American lives and prestige.

By contrast, the decision to attack Iran remains popular in Israel. The main critique of Netanyahu made in the campaign by the opposition parties is that he has failed to finish the job.

Despite this, and his failure to protect Israel from the Hamas attack of October 7, 2023, Netanyahu is still campaigning on national security issues. In the closing days of the election campaign, he has shared an AI-generated image of a nuclear explosion over Tel Aviv, with the accompanying claim that "Israel is in real and tangible existential danger".

Netanyahu is believed to have pressed for a renewed assault on Iran before Israel votes on Tuesday. With the polls suggesting that the bloc of parties that support his government will narrowly lose the election, he may have felt that a renewal of the war with Iran would give him an electoral boost.

Trump, by contrast, seems keen to defer any new attack on Iran until after America has voted. And, since he is the senior partner in the relationship with Netanyahu, his view has prevailed.

The political situation will be different after the Israeli and American elections. Even if both Trump and Netanyahu go down to defeat, they may both still have the motive and the means to renew the war on Iran.

It could take weeks or months to form a new Israeli coalition government. In the meantime, Netanyahu is likely to stay on as prime minister -- with the legal right to order military action if he deems it to be in the interests of Israeli national security.

Some analysts, such as Danny Citrinowicz, of Israel's Institute for National Security Studies, have also pointed out that a renewal of war with Iran might allow Netanyahu to press for a national unity government, which he would lead.

As for the US, even if the Republicans lose control of both houses of Congress, Trump will still be commander-in-chief of America's armed forces. His desire for vengeance and shows of strength may only increase if he is humiliated at the ballot box.

For all these reasons, an intensification of the war against Iran is more likely than not. But, of course, nothing is certain with Trump. The US president has promised military escalation against Iran several times in recent months -- only to back off.

The reasons that he failed to follow through in the past all still remain compelling. American forces and allies in the region are vulnerable to retaliation. The campaign to date has already depleted crucial munitions -- in particular missile interceptors. A renewed war will be bad for the economy and for the markets. There is no convincing path to victory.

But the fact that a renewed military campaign makes little sense does not mean it won't happen. Defeat at the ballot box may convince both Netanyahu and Trump to try once again for victory on the battlefield.