'The Switzerland of North America': Albertans vote on leaving Canada

Monday's referendum on independence for the western province threatens Mark Carney's effort to unite the country against a hostile US

Stan Church, an 83-year-old cowboy-hat-and-boot-wearing lawyer, started a purebred cattle business in 1968 that has since grown into one of the largest such operations in Canada.

But despite his successes on the ranch, Church believes that his beloved Alberta will only truly flourish when it has left its union with Canada.

"Our desire is to be the Switzerland of North America," he said in his Calgary office, before quickly adding: "with low taxes".

On Monday, Church and his extended family will vote to leave Canada in a poll that threatens to undermine Prime Minister Mark Carney's bid to unite the country in the face of relentless hostilities by US President Donald Trump.

"This is not about a certain political party, nor a certain policy, it's not rightwing or a leftwing thing," said Church. "It's a question of the structure of Canada that makes us a colony. Either we change that or our only alternative is to leave."

In the lead-up to the historic vote, Carney -- an Albertan himself -- made a tour of the province promoting the federalist cause, telling packed rallies that only a decisive result would settle the issue.

"This referendum comes at the worst possible time," he said on Thursday night in Calgary. "The world has become more dangerous and divided. Some outside our borders are working to break us so they can own us."

Monday's ballot contains 10 questions concerning the strengthening of Alberta's provincial powers, in particular around immigration, constitutional reform and whether to launch the legal process towards a binding referendum on separation from Canada.

Since Alberta joined Canada's federation in 1905, separatist sentiments have ebbed and flowed in the western province that is the largest foreign supplier of oil to the US and which accounts for roughly a fifth of the country's agricultural exports.

In the 1970s and 1980s, separatism gained a significant political voice fuelled by resentment over federal energy policy. Canada's constitution gives provinces ownership of the minerals below the soil -- but the federal government has much sway over how that oil can get from landlocked Alberta to export markets.

Under Justin Trudeau, Carney's Liberal predecessor, Ottawa also sought to impose strict carbon pollution restrictions that Alberta's oil industry felt unfairly targeted their industry and stifled economic growth.

But there are also cultural frictions, with the province's historically conservative English-speaking majority balking at the influence of more populous eastern provinces Ontario and Quebec, which tend to be more liberal and benefit from hydropower.

"Pacific Link (pipeline to the west coast) will create over 140,000 jobs, reduce our dependence on the United States," said Carney to receive rapturous applause and cheers.

He also spoke in French and had earlier posted on social media "Bonjour, Calgary" as if aiming a shot at those who bristle at French being the country's second official language.

Albertans are aggrieved for a host of reasons but mostly due to their oil-rich coffers being taxed to bankroll Canada's less fortunate provinces. Meanwhile, Quebec in the east is seen to be favourably treated as part of Canadian political parties' calculus to stay in power.

But Canada's oil production is at record levels, as are company profits. Since coming to office, Carney has torn up numerous environmental regulations, wants to build a pipeline carrying 1mn barrels of oil a day and plans to triple LNG production.

For some, their grievances outweigh Carney's efforts to make amends for past neglect, including a thorough embrace of its oil and gas industry or persuading China to ease tariffs on its canola and agriculture industries.

"A shovel in the ground on that new pipeline, like money in the bank, is what we want," said Michael Binnion, an oil and gas executive who runs Questerre Energy.

Binnion advocates for a "re-federation process that gets more legal and fiscal autonomy" for Alberta and, by doing so, strengthens Canada.

Alberta's premier Danielle Smith, the 55-year-old United Conservative Party leader, cleared the path for an independence referendum to placate a large portion of her own party who want to leave Canada even though she says she wants to remain.

Her calculation has been likened to that made by Britain's then prime minister David Cameron in 2016, who called a vote on Brexit ostensibly to settle the question once and for all. He also wanted to remain -- and lost the vote.

Corey Hogan, Calgary's only Liberal member of parliament, said that while "western alienation" has long been a gripe, this latest flare-up is counter-productive in the face of Trump's threats to make Canada the 51st US state.

"This issue has divided people. Certainly, this has pushed away economic activity," he said.

Deborah Yedlin, president of the Calgary Chamber of Commerce, said the vote has been a significant distraction, creating uncertainty that has slowed investment.

"Everything that I've seen (from Carney) is a complete change from where we were 18 months ago," she said, adding that "nobody ever got rich or was successful by looking backwards. You have to look forward."

Yedlin said Carney's efforts to harness Alberta's energy sector and efforts to bring foreign investment to Canada speak for themselves.

"Alberta's on the cusp of an unprecedented economic expansion because of what's on the table," she said.

Boardrooms across Alberta do not want to leave Canada. Numerous oil and gas executives, as well as conservative leaders such as the current opposition leader Pierre Poilievre, are against separating.

First Nations leaders in Alberta are also overwhelmingly against the separation vote, arguing that constitutionally protected treaties between Indigenous nations and the Crown prevent any potential secession plan.

Angus Reid Institute polling released on Friday found the "remain a province of Canada" option is still the popular choice with 66 per cent of surveyed Albertans.

But for the one-third (34 per cent) who support holding a future binding separation referendum, the majority (60 per cent) only want to "send a message to Ottawa" rather than actually leave the province (37 per cent).

The urban-rural divide on this topic is obvious as you leave Alberta's cities and centres, with the highways lined with separatist signs, posters and flags.

One of the key separatist proponents is Mitch Sylvestre, an Alberta Prosperity Party leader and sports shop owner, whose political origin story comes from the "trucker's convoy" protests over Ottawa's handling of Covid.

"I've had lots of death threats," he said. "The government in Ottawa is actually sabotaging Alberta. Basically, it's a one-way flow of money from us to them."

Sylvestre is confident they will get "45-65 per cent of the vote," but he has also started telling media there were signs of vote tampering.

"A fair election is going to be a very, very tough thing to achieve," he said without offering any evidence for these claims.

The movement has attracted its share of conspiracy theorists, who have a strong online following that is widely supported in a Maga ecosystem that views any authority as infringing on fundamental freedoms and rights.

The White House has actively courted the Alberta Prosperity Party at a time of unprecedented discord between Canada and the US.

"It's a fantasy. We have nothing to do with Maga," Sylvestre said.

The FT has previously revealed that Alberta separatists met US state department officials on three occasions last year to discuss support for their independence movement, including a $500bn credit facility.

"The US is extremely enthusiastic about a free and independent Alberta," Jeff Rath, legal counsel at the separatist Alberta Prosperity Project, who attended the meetings, said at the time.

From unease with federal language laws that support Quebec to government over-reach and over-regulation, Alberta's separatist vote exposes a fractured society at odds with itself and the rest of the country.

For Church it is as personal as it is political.

"My granddaughter can't become prime minister because she doesn't speak French," he said.