New Times/Siena surveys show Democrats leading in all key battlegrounds that will decide Senate control. The party is ahead in Michigan, Kansas, Texas, Maine, Ohio, Alaska, and Iowa. While these results look strong, experts worry polls might overestimate Democratic support again, just like they did in 2016 and 2020.
New Times/Siena surveys show Democrats leading in all the key battlegrounds that will decide Senate control.
Democrats gained ground right to the end in the final New York Times/Siena University polls of the 2026 midterm campaign. The party is ahead in all seven states likeliest to decide control of the Senate: Michigan, Kansas, Texas, Maine, Ohio and, more narrowly, Alaska and Iowa.
A substantial Democratic lead in Texas? Kansas? Anything like these results would have been unfathomable just a few months ago.
In today's polarized era, there's no precedent for a party to fare this well in so many states that are generally safe wins for the other side. The only plausible comparisons are the Democratic victories in 2006 and 2008, but the recent polls outpace even those. The average of all polls shows Democrats leading in the same states as the Times/Siena surveys, giving the party the edge in more solidly Republican Senate seats than it managed to flip in 2006 and 2008 combined.
On the other hand, there's precedent in the Trump era for polls to overestimate Democrats, and it's reasonable to wonder whether the polls might be overestimating Democratic strength yet again. This is a real possibility. President Trump's supporters are relatively unlikely to respond to polls, which introduces the ever-present risk of a polling misfire. And as will be discussed at the end of this newsletter, there are signs that this is a serious problem for pollsters again this cycle.
Nonetheless, Democrats lead by enough that they could win the Senate even if the polls underestimate Republicans by as much as they did in 2016 or 2020. And if there were ever a time when American voters might offer such a decisive verdict on the president, this could be it.
Historically, quagmire abroad and high prices at home are the ingredients for a failed presidency. Since the American attack on Iran, Mr. Trump's approval ratings have fallen into the mid-30s -- below the long supposed "floor" in his support. It's made him the most unpopular president heading into a midterm election since Harry Truman in 1946.
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