The ex-KPMG consultant who could be New Zealand's kingmaker

Fiji-born Qiulae Wong backs 'land tax' to fund universal basic income and push down housing prices

Qiulae Wong's political career began just a year ago, when she saw an ad on recruitment site Seek to be leader of New Zealand's Opportunity Party. Then a consultant with KPMG, she applied and -- despite a lack of political experience -- got the job.

Now Wong, 38, could be the kingmaker in a November 7 election, analysts say, with the polls pointing towards an even split between Prime Minister Chris Luxon's National-led government and the opposition Labour Party.

Luxon is battling to avoid becoming New Zealand's first one-term government in more than 50 years, counting on signs of a nascent economic recovery, such as stronger than expected GDP growth in the second quarter. But progress has been slow, with high energy prices putting pressure on inflation and elevated unemployment and underemployment.

Wong sees a chance to upend New Zealand's political landscape, arguing that voters are disillusioned with "the Chrises", referring to the prime minister and Labour leader Chris Hipkins, who succeeded Jacinda Ardern.

"The fact that most of them are career politicians is one of the reasons that there's a lack of imagination around what the future could hold," Wong said.

An RNZ/Reid poll this month projected that Luxon's rightwing coalition would win 56 of 120 seats, compared with 57 for the Labour-led grouping. Opportunity, projected to win seven, could hold the balance of power. A Roy Morgan poll suggested Opportunity could do even better, with eight seats.

Brigitte Morten, a former adviser to the National Party, said Opportunity had picked up momentum as support for the two main parties has waned.

"They've shaken up that policy vacuum and made a lot of noise," Morten said.

Opportunity has modelled itself on Australia's independent Teals, marrying centre-right economics with climate-oriented social policies.

Its platform is centred on a "land value tax", an annual charge of 1.75 per cent in urban areas and 0.5 per cent in rural areas with which the party aims to discourage land banking, improve housing affordability and gradually reset the tax system away from income.

The land tax would fund a universal basic income, dubbed the "Citizen's Income", of up to NZ$19,400 (US$11,000) a year to replace welfare benefits.

Luxon, who has survived two no-confidence votes this year, has ruled out a deal with Opportunity over their tax policies. He also proposed a referendum on New Zealand's voting system, which has benefited smaller parties, to prevent needing to rely on "some yahoo or numpty" to govern.

Politicians can enter the Beehive, New Zealand's parliament in Wellington, either by winning a contested electoral seat or if their party wins 5 per cent of the total vote, earning them a "list" seat.

The Nationals govern with New Zealand First, led by outspoken political veteran Winston Peters, and the libertarian ACT, while Labour sides with the Greens and indigenous Te Pāti Māori.

Entering a governing coalition would mark a dramatic rise for Fiji-born Wong, who spent a decade in London working in ethical fashion, including for a start-up backed by Vivienne Westwood, before returning to Auckland.

She said she was motivated to enter politics by a "sharp turn on climate action" under Luxon's government.

"Seeing first-hand the impact that change in direction from government had on [business] confidence to invest, and their sense of stability and certainty of the long term, was incredibly frustrating," she said. She called it the "final straw" that pushed her to "start looking around at where else I could have an impact".

She is standing in Mount Albert, the seat once held by Ardern and Helen Clark, another former Labour prime minister, who has called Opportunity's tax plans "fantasy posing as policy". The party has drafted in former Ardern minister Iain Lees-Galloway to manage its campaign.

Opportunity has faced criticism over its tax overhaul, which the party says could push down house prices by 10-15 per cent and result in about 10 per cent of New Zealanders paying more tax.

The party concedes that landlords could pass tax costs on to tenants. But it argues that over time, the tax switch would make it too expensive for investors to sit on unused land, stimulating demand and increasing housing supply.

Exemptions would also be available for cash-poor landowners such as retirees and farmers, who can defer payment until properties are sold. Critics say the plan would punish homeowners and risk wealth flight.

Wong casts the tax policies as part an overhaul of the "old economy" to invest in people rather than property and help younger voters struggling with housing affordability.

"We've bought very expensive houses at the peak of the market. We're mortgaged up to our eyeballs and we don't particularly want to see equity in our homes drop," she said. "But at the same time, if we want our kids to be able to afford a house, then we have to do something."

"I'd be willing to take a short-term hit if it meant that the economy was going to be better off in the long run," she said.