Southeast Asian leaders to meet as Trump visit highlights trade disruption

Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia – Southeast Asian leaders are preparing to hold their flagship annual summit as US President Donald Trump embarks on an Asia Pacific trip that will focus attention on his upending of trade and traditional alliances.

Leaders of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) are gathering in Manila, the Philippines, for a series of multilateral and bilateral meetings running from Sunday until Tuesday.

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Trump is scheduled to meet Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr during a brief stop in Manila on Tuesday, before heading to the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Shenzhen, China, where he will have his fourth face-to-face meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in just over a year.

It will also be the first time that Trump, Xi and Russia’s President Vladimir Putin will meet for trilateral talks, the White House has confirmed.

Trump’s visit to Southeast Asia – his second since his return to the White House after his attendance at the 2025 ASEAN summit in Malaysia – comes after his administration announced new tariffs on dozens of trade partners, including most of the region’s economies, in July.

Trump’s administration announced the duties of between 10 and 12.5 percent after the US Supreme Court struck down his steeper “reciprocal” tariffs in February.

The Office of the US Trade Representative said it was imposing the tariffs on 60 trade partners over their alleged failure to clamp down on forced labour.

The Trump administration is also conducting trade probes over alleged national security and “excess” manufacturing concerns that could result in yet more tariffs for Southeast Asian trade partners.

Exports up – but can it last?

Southeast Asia has weathered Trump’s trade salvoes relatively unscathed until now, in part as a result of the diversion of billions of dollars of Chinese trade through the region.

US imports from ASEAN rose more than 29 percent to $453.6bn in 2025, expanding the trade deficit between the sides to $327.4bn, according to the Office of the US Trade Representative.

Deborah Elms, head of trade policy at the Hinrich Foundation in Singapore, said, however, that Southeast Asian countries cannot guarantee that their luck will continue.

“ASEAN has had mixed success in navigating US tariffs. Overall exports are up. But this is primarily driven by shipments of electronics which are largely exempt from tariffs,” Elms told Al Jazeera.

“These shipments are also strongly tied to the AI buildout. If that falters, ASEAN will feel it,” she said.

While ASEAN leaders have provided few details about the summit agenda, trade is likely to be among the main topics of discussion.

For a bloc that often faces accusations of being a talking shop, one of the most anticipated tangible outcomes is the signing of the Digital Economy Framework Agreement, a pact aimed at easing cross-border data transfers and electronic payments.

Initiated in 2023, the framework has been billed as a step towards building an ASEAN digital economy worth $2 trillion by 2030.

Waiting for Trump’s next move

Jayant Menon, a senior fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, said Southeast Asian leaders will be concerned about “what comes next” from Trump on trade.

“So far, the recent tariffs appear to have had a limited impact on competitiveness of ASEAN exports. But this may change in the future, with more sectoral tariffs, in particular, or other measures such as export controls,” Menon told Al Jazeera.

“Trump still retains significant autonomous authority over trade policy despite losing control of both houses, and could double down rather than back off,” Menon said, referring to the Republicans’ crushing defeat in the US midterm elections on November 3.

Boosting regional trade

Phar Kim Beng, a professor of ASEAN studies at the International Islamic University of Malaysia, said Southeast Asian leaders are likely to reiterate calls for increased trade within the region, a goal that has lagged aspirations despite decades of trade liberalisation in the bloc.

“Whether measured from 1970 or 2025, intraregional trade remains paltry at 23 percent. In contrast, the European Union can cross intraregional trade of 67 percent easily,” Phar told Al Jazeera.

Phar said he does not expect ASEAN to announce any significant measures to spur trade within the bloc, but its leaders will continue to “mouth the mantra of better and bigger” trade volumes.

“Regardless of the tariffs intended by President Donald Trump, ASEAN will continue to muddle through by speaking of the importance of trade and more trade,” he said.