South Africa's ANC faces sharply reduced share of vote in local elections

Early results on Thursday suggest huge drop in support for party compared with 2021

Early results from South Africa's local elections suggested a dramatic fall in support for the country's African National Congress party as it held only a narrow lead over its main rival, the Democratic Alliance.

With about a quarter of voting districts counted, the ANC had secured 31.9 per cent of the national proportional representation vote, against 29 per cent for the DA, according to provisional results. Former president Jacob Zuma's uMkhonto weSizwe party was in third place nationally, with 5.9 per cent.

An early projection by the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research implied a steep drop in support for the ANC, at 32 per cent of the vote, compared with 46 per cent in the last local elections in 2021. The DA, meanwhile, climbed to 26 per cent compared with 22 per cent previously, according to the research group's projections.

"The ANC is losing significant ground in the townships," said Wayne Sussman, an expert on local elections.

The final outcome would be determined by who voted and who stayed at home, pollsters said, with DA voters showing more propensity to go the polls than disaffected ANC supporters. Assuming the DA can stay above 25 per cent, it is likely to try to present its electoral performance as a breakthrough after years of being stuck in the low 20s.

The rand jumped to 16.32 to the dollar on Thursday, taking its gains this week to 2.4 per cent.

The early results suggest there will be intense political horse-trading to determine who controls most of South Africa's major cities, including the economic hub of Johannesburg, distracting political leaders from the country's deepening governance and economic problems. Parties have 14 days to negotiate a coalition once the result is announced.

Over the past decade, unstable coalitions have plunged many municipalities into crisis as they have been paralysed by political infighting, frequent changes of leadership and the collapse of basic service delivery.

Officials at the ANC party headquarters have pledged to take control of the coalition negotiation process, raising the prospect of alliances with the DA in some cities, including Johannesburg. But the party could face rebellions from local ANC party officials who may favour a coalition with other parties, including with Zuma's MK, which broke away from the ANC in 2023.

Cape Town was the exception to the wider uncertainty on Thursday, with the DA projected to retain control of the city, albeit with a reduced margin after 20 years running the city.

None of the remaining seven metropolitan councils, including Johannesburg, South Africa's economic powerhouse, and Durban, the region's biggest port and a centre of support for MK, had yet been decided by Thursday morning.

The ANC's performance will intensify debate over its strategy for rebuilding support ahead of the 2029 national election and could add to pressure on President Cyril Ramaphosa over his continued leadership of the party ahead of its elective conference next year.

But the trends from early results partly reflect the speed at which votes are counted. Those in urban and suburban voting districts, where the DA tends to perform well, are processed faster than in townships and rural areas, meaning the initial returns can overstate its advantage.

The ANC and other parties could widen the gap as more results come in, particularly in Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal, home to some of the country's biggest metropolitan areas, analysts said.

Early results suggested that "the country's urban areas are hurtling towards hung councils, but the national picture is quite tight", said Caleigh Plaatjes, an analyst at consultancy Africa Practice.

The ANC would be forced to the negotiating table, but the choice of coalition partners could have implications far beyond municipal government, she said.

A renewed round of bargaining with the DA, whose relationship with the ANC in the national government has been marked by frequent clashes, could further strain the fragile government of national unity.

"It's just a matter of who the ANC decides to align with. It's literally just going to be a game of maths," she added.

Smaller parties are also likely to wield considerable influence, with their seats potentially determining who governs some of the country's largest urban economies.