The conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan has escalated after eight months of fighting. Both sides now use proxy groups, making the situation more volatile. "The proxy standoff is intensifying, and that's a more dangerous escalation," said Ibraheem Bahiss. Efforts by China and Russia to mediate have failed to bring peace.
The two sides turn to proxy groups after eight months of a conflict that has taken a heavy toll on civilians.
China has tried to mediate, unsuccessfully. So have Russia, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar. And yet the conflict between Pakistan and Afghanistan shows no sign of ending, and each side appears to have abandoned diplomacy. Proxy groups are also playing a growing role in the unrest. In the latest round of fighting on Saturday, Pakistan's military claims to have destroyed a military camp along the rugged, porous border and killed Afghan soldiers. A provincial spokesman for the Afghan military denied that there were any Afghan casualties and claimed instead that the Taliban had killed 13 Pakistani soldiers.
The conflict could become even more unpredictable, said Ibraheem Bahiss, an expert on Afghanistan at the International Crisis Group, as both sides embrace proxy groups: The Taliban in Afghanistan are accused of failing to restrain incursions by armed groups in the borderland that target Pakistan, while Pakistan is warming to the idea of supporting anti-Taliban armed opposition.
On Sept. 27, the Taliban said they had killed 28 militiamen and captured 32 others who had tried to enter Afghanistan from Pakistan. The Pakistani government called the accusations "baseless."
"The proxy standoff is intensifying, and that's a more dangerous escalation," Mr. Bahiss said.
Pakistan's military and intelligence officials have met with leaders of anti-Taliban armed groups in recent months to offer potential support, according to a Pakistani intelligence official, a former national security official briefed on the meetings, and a senior Afghan member of one of those groups.
The conflict between the two countries, which escalated when Pakistan declared "open war" in late February, has stymied months of effort to broker peace and killed or injured at least 1,100 Afghan civilians. More than 730 civilians have been killed in militant attacks in Pakistan this year, according to the South Asia Terrorism Portal, a New Delhi-based monitoring platform.
In April, China hosted talks that went nowhere. On Oct. 5, a meeting in Moscow on Afghan security among 10 countries in the region failed to produce a joint statement because of disagreements between the Afghan and Pakistani delegations, according to Vladimir V. Putin's special representative for Russia.
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