Maga theatrics and mud-slinging shake up bruising battle for Texas Senate seat

Scandal-prone Trump pick goes head-to-head with seminarian Democrat in race that could determine control of the upper house of Congress

"Where do you think they hid that little socialist?" Ken Paxton asked the crowd at a rally in San Antonio earlier this month.

The Republican candidate for the US Senate in Texas was referring to his Democratic rival James Talarico, who was absent from the campaign trail for a number of days this month.

Paxton said voters faced a stark choice and compared them to raindrops falling on either side of the Continental Divide. The laboured analogy was eclipsed by the appearance of Donald Trump to roars of approval.

"A vote for Talafreako is a vote to turn Texas into a dirty, failing, crime-ridden third-world dumping ground," the US president said of the Presbyterian seminarian and former middle-school teacher, whom he likes to compare to Alfred E Neuman, the boyish mascot of the satirical MAD Magazine.

"You know you haven't seen him in a couple of weeks, I hear the guy's disappeared. He's sick because he's been forced to eat meat for political reasons," he said.

The crowd of more than 5,000, who wore cowboy hats and sequinned red jackets that said "Make Texas Great Again", whistled and cheered with laughter.

Republicans' ruthless tactics in Texas are a sign of the party's desperation just days before the midterm elections. Despite millions being poured into Paxton's campaign, including $158mn from Elon Musk, he is running neck and neck with Talarico.

If the Democrat were victorious, he would become the first to win a statewide election in Texas in more than three decades -- and would help his party's bid to seize control of the Senate.

Paxton and his allies have doubled down on their strategy. The day after the San Antonio rally, he accused Talarico of having a "full-blown Tala-freak-out". A chorus of conservative social media influencers claimed that the Democrat was in a mental health facility in Ohio.

Talarico's appearance at a music festival in Austin the following day did nothing to quell the pile-on, with Musk saying on X days later: "The Talarico campaign is not being honest about what's happening."

Talarico turned the frenzy to his advantage by instead focusing on Paxton's refusal to debate him, adding: "I've never even been to Ohio."

Republican-aligned groups have spent $243mn to defend what was, up until a couple of months ago, a reliably red -- or Republican -- state, compared to spending of $58mn for Talarico.

Paxton won Trump's endorsement in the party's May primary, beating veteran senator John Cornyn. But the president's choice has created an opening for Democrats, with voters turned off by the former attorney-general's litany of controversies.

In an effort to discredit Talarico, Republicans have launched a series attacks on his character, seizing on his past comments that God is non-binary and that there are six sexes. The Democrat has since said his non-binary quote was purposefully "provocative" and clarified that there are only two sexes.

The Republican attacks speak to Trump's base, which prides itself on Christian values and what it calls common sense, and which the party needs to turn out and vote if it is to defend against a so-called blue wave.

"I'm going to vote for Paxton, I'm OK to say it," said Helen Horvath, a 56-year-old at the San Antonio rally, wearing jeans and brown cowboy boots with pink stars. "The other person is saying there are six sexes," she said of Talarico. "I don't want my grandkids to be confused."

Despite Trump's abysmal approval ratings and rising frustration with the cost of living crisis and the Iran war, the president's ability to get the Maga faithful out to vote may be Paxton's best chance of winning.

The worst-case scenario for Republicans would be if voters turn on Trump and abstain from voting for Paxton and other controversial Maga candidates.

Democrats cheered when Trump endorsed Paxton, whom one party organiser described as a "generationally weak candidate".

Paxton has been prosecuted by the state for securities fraud and impeached by his own party over abuse of office through his relationship with a real estate developer and a political donor. He has denied all the charges and was acquitted after the impeachment.

His personal life has been tabloid fodder after his wife of 38 years, Angela, last year filed for divorce on "biblical grounds" and alleged adultery. The Paxtons cancelled their trial as the Senate race heated up.

Paxton continues to court controversy. As Talarico celebrated July 4 at Willie Nelson's annual picnic in Austin, the former attorney-general was spotted vacationing in London with his girlfriend, Christian influencer Tracy Duhon.

He has been shunned by the party's old guard after Trump endorsed him over Cornyn. Damaging leaks from his team have appeared in the press. Secret recordings reveal him complaining about his poll numbers dropping after the Republican midterm convention in Dallas.

Earlier this month, a story about him ringing in the 2024 New Year in Dubai with fugitives indicted in the US on federal healthcare fraud charges appeared in The Wall Street Journal.

Paxton's strongest appeal is his record as attorney-general, when he challenged the Obama and Biden administrations on energy policy, supported abortion restrictions and took on Big Tech.

"He's probably the most strategic lawyer I've ever dealt with," said Tony Buzbee, a top US trial lawyer who represented Paxton during his impeachment trial and thousands of BP claimants following the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. As attorney-general he was "always thinking multiple steps ahead", he added.

Voter anger over corruption in politics could work in Talarico's favour. An FT poll carried out earlier this month found that 69 per cent of US voters were very concerned about "corruption, self-dealing or conflicts of interest".

John Bochert, a gay conservative Christian, said there was momentum behind the state representative.

"It frustrates me when I see gay Christians, Christians in general, support Talarico . . . [because] by saying God is non-binary he is promoting a blasphemy," said the 42-year-old, wearing a Make America Gay Again baseball cap.

But he added that "most Christians who support Talarico do so because Paxton is a bad person".

Talarico has an earnest charisma on stage. The 37-year-old pulls big crowds at venues across the state, lands punchlines with comedic timing and stays after his rallies to shake hands with supporters and pose for pictures. His fans proudly wear shirts that read: "I'm a Talafreako."

He is most comfortable speaking on issues such as the separation of church and state and education. He won over conservative podcaster Joe Rogan in a cerebral interview that ran for almost three hours last year, where Rogan praised him and said he would like to see more people like him in politics.

But Talarico is struggling to reconcile his past voting record as he tries to appeal to mainstream Texans.

Executives in the energy industry point out that not so long ago, he was a fierce critic of fossil fuels, a mainstay of the Texan economy. In 2022, he wore a black face mask and signed a pledge never to accept donations from industries tied to coal, oil or natural gas.

Today, he is in cowboy boots and denim saying he supports an "all-of-the-above energy strategy", which means backing a mix of energy sources.

Back then, he also said it was "existential" to reduce meat consumption in order to combat climate change. Today, he says, "I've been eating BBQ since before Ken Paxton's first indictment."

In an attempt to burnish his everyman appeal, his latest advertisement features actors from Friday Night Lights, a television series about high school football in the oil heartland of Texas. His tour borrows the coach's rally cry: "Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose."

To win, Talarico needs Republican voters to abstain from voting for Paxton and to squeeze as many votes as possible from the state's already Democratic urban centres and from women, university graduates and younger voters in the suburbs.

Like in other big races across the country, Talarico's campaign also hopes it can win back Latino voters, who swung to the Republicans in 2024 but have been disappointed by the economy and feel betrayed by the immigration crackdown during Trump's second term.

"The question is how bad is the day for the Republican Party," said Greg LaMantia, who runs L&F Distributors, a family-owned Budweiser wholesaler. The 69-year-old was speaking from McAllen, a city on the Mexican border. "There's clearly an anti-Maga, anti-Trump thing going on here," he added.

LaMantia, who describes himself as an independent, said that people who voted Republican in the last presidential election had buyer's remorse. Small businesses have been hit hard by tariffs and high fuel prices, while Immigration and Customs Enforcement action has terrorised communities and disrupted farm and ranch operations. He says beer sales are down by as much as 4 per cent over the past year.

"The biggest single thing impacting us is the ICE immigration issue," he said.

Early voting has already begun in Texas, with multiple counties across the state reporting record-breaking turnouts, mirroring those in Georgia and Virginia, where there are other close races.

Trump is expected to be back in the state this week, his fourth trip to Texas in two months, to support Paxton as he battles the final stretch of the campaign.

"I don't like Talarico, I don't think he's good for Texas," said one Dallas-based oilman who asked to remain anonymous. "But Ken Paxton is the worst thing we could have run for the Republican Party."