Israel's election: What happens next?

Exit polls suggest neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor his rivals have a simple path to form a government

Israelis voted in a historic election on Tuesday, the first since Hamas's October 7 2023 attack, in what many viewed as a referendum on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's divisive rule.

Turnout rose to the highest level in more than two decades and was well above the previous election in November 2022, a strong indication of what the country's citizens saw as the high stakes of the vote.

What do the results show?

According to exit polls released late on Tuesday, neither Netanyahu's far-right coalition nor the bloc of Jewish opposition parties, centred around Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party, was on course to win an absolute majority -- signalling a potential deadlock.

Yashar and three other Jewish opposition groups were forecast to win 49 to 51 seats in Israel's 120-seat Knesset or parliament.

Netanyahu's coalition, which has ruled Israel for the past four years and unites his Likud party with two ultranationalist and two ultra-Orthodox parties, was forecast by exit polls to win 51 to 52 seats.

But as ballot counting progressed, the Netanyahu bloc appeared to be comfortably ahead of Eisenkot's, albeit short of a majority and with no credible path to making up the shortfall. After about 40 per cent of votes were counted, his group was projected to win about 57 seats.

Israel's Arab parties, who also oppose the current government, were predicted in exit polls to win the remaining 18-19 seats, which -- if confirmed -- would represent a record result and a sharp increase on the 10 they held in the outgoing parliament.

Exit polls in previous Israeli elections have not always been accurate, however, and the official results will depend in part on whether various smaller parties clear the 3.25 per cent electoral threshold for representation in the Knesset.

How does parliament choose a prime minister?

It can take Israel's Central Elections Committee several days to tally and formalise the vote count. By law they have seven days from the election to provide the official results to President Isaac Herzog. In past election cycles officials have completed the bulk of the count sooner, though legal challenges may delay certification of the results.

Once this is done and each party is allocated its share of the 120 seats, Herzog will hold consultations with party officials as to whom they "recommend" be tasked with forming a government.

Critically, this is not necessarily the leader of the largest faction, but whoever is deemed to have the best chance of cobbling together a governing coalition.

Once a politician is given a "mandate" to form a government by the president, they have 28 days -- with the option of a 14-day extension -- to negotiate the terms of any such coalition. If that person fails, the president invites a second person to attempt the task within 28 days, with no option of an extension.

In the event that this also fails, the president can give the Knesset 21 days to find an absolute majority of parliamentarians willing to back a third candidate, who then has 14 days to form a government. Otherwise, the Knesset is dissolved and new elections are called.

Who can form a government?

In theory, Herzog could give the first "mandate" to form a government to a party with fewer seats if it had stronger prospects of cobbling together a coalition. Former military chief Eisenkot's Yashar party is set to garner between 21 and 22 seats, according to the exit polls.

Yet Eisenkot's path to forming a coalition is not straightforward. The four main Jewish opposition parties are predicted to fall well short of an absolute majority of 61 seats, meaning they will now require the support -- both explicit and tacit -- of the two Arab Israeli political factions. Some opposition leaders have previously rejected the idea.

Eisenkot during the campaign had indicated a willingness to lead a minority coalition if necessary. This could be achieved with a simple majority in parliament if Arab parties aid the formation of a government. While legally possible, this has never before been tried in Israeli history.

Opposition leader Avigdor Lieberman, a former defence minister and head of the rightwing Yisrael Beiteinu party, had previously ruled out such a scenario.

The "mandate" could also be given to Netanyahu and Likud -- which is predicted to be the largest party in parliament with some 27 seats -- although his path to forming a majority coalition is complicated by the fact that all opposition factions have ruled out serving under him.

The live vote count -- if it holds -- would strengthen his claim to receiving the mandate as the leader of a bloc that would only need a handful more members to reach the 61 seats needed for a majority.

If deadlock and another election loom, Herzog may also urge Netanyahu and Eisenkot to come together in a unity government with a rotating premiership, as happened in April 2020. It remains unclear -- and highly contentious -- which politician would serve first as premier in such an arrangement.

Netanyahu claimed victory within the "Jewish camp" and urged his Zionist rivals to shun Arab parties and join his "national, rightwing," government.

What else can Netanyahu do?

In the event that Netanyahu is unable to form a government, opposition officials and civil society activists are increasingly concerned that he and his supporters could refuse to recognise the results, which risks fomenting a constitutional crisis.

The new Knesset's first session is set to take place by law on November 14, during which the opposition is expected to move to replace the current parliamentary speaker, Likud official Amir Ohana.

In 2020, another Likud Knesset speaker initially refused to vacate the post and threatened to ignore a Supreme Court ruling on the matter. Ohana has in the past made statements indicating that he may not abide by the top court's rulings.

Also looming is the threat of a renewed US-Israeli offensive against Iran, something both Netanyahu and Donald Trump have pledged to carry out -- though a fresh campaign is seen as unlikely until after next week's US midterm elections.

Netanyahu has repeatedly warned that Israel faces an existential threat from Iran and has vowed to restart the war.

But many Israelis are concerned that doing so before a new government is formed -- when Netanyahu would still be a transitional prime minister -- could upend the government formation process and spark a regional conflagration.