Introducing a New Way to Understand the Election: Times Voter Trends

A timely demographic story we've never been able to tell before.

When the dust settles on election night, the story won't simply be about who won, but who decided the outcome: Which demographic groups shifted the most, stayed home or delivered the decisive votes to the winners?

This year, we're going to tell the demographic story of the election as we never have before. We will publish a new comprehensive portrait of how each of the key demographic groups in the country voted, called Times Voter Trends. It will break down estimates for the results of U.S. House and Senate elections by age, race, education and gender in every state in the country.

We'll report our preliminary findings late on election night. Today, we're retroactively releasing findings from the 2020 and 2024 presidential elections, which offer a baseline for evaluating how voters will shift in the midterm election. You can explore demographic trends in every state, from President Trump's surge among Hispanics to Kamala Harris's overlooked resilience among white voters in the Sun Belt.

Times Voter Trends draws on exhaustive data gathered and in some cases generated by The New York Times. It synthesizes the Times/Siena poll, precinct-level election results, voter file data and, of course, estimates from our election night live model, The Needle, into a comprehensive analysis of what happened in the election.

We've been making estimates like these internally for a decade. They lurk behind the Times/Siena poll and Needle. We've sometimes used the data in articles analyzing voter turnout and demographic trends. Nonetheless, we have never released them comprehensively to the public or reported them so soon after the polls close.

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