In the Nebraska Senate race, Republican Senator Pete Ricketts leads independent candidate Dan Osborn by six points. A New York Times/Siena University poll showed Ricketts at 49 percent and Osborn at 43 percent. Many voters in the conservative state do not believe that Osborn is truly independent from the Democratic Party.
Dan Osborn trails by six points, and voters don't seem to buy that he's truly independent from Democrats.
If one "X" factor has loomed over this year's Senate races, it might be the independent candidate in Nebraska, Dan Osborn.
Two years ago, he came within seven percentage points of winning a Senate seat, even as President Trump won the state by 20 points. With the national environment much more favorable for Democrats now, the race seemed to have the makings of a barnburner.
Today's New York Times/Siena University poll did not find a barnburner. Senator Pete Ricketts, the Republican incumbent, led Mr. Osborn by six points, 49 percent to 43 percent.
This is a somewhat surprising result. There haven't been many polls of this race, but most of the polling -- usually sponsored by partisan organizations -- has shown a tight contest.
The result is not as surprising, or as much of an outlier, as our poll of nearby Minnesota, which found the Democrat there up 14 points Wednesday. But it is a better result for Mr. Ricketts than any poll since Labor Day. This time it's the Republicans who will cheer the result.
Why is Mr. Ricketts faring so well? If the poll is right, there's a straightforward explanation: Nebraska's conservative electorate isn't buying that Mr. Osborn is an independent.
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