How a Chinese COP could make or break the climate fight

Beijing is said to be weighing the pros and cons of hosting the UN climate talks in 2028

Among the global climate community there is a key topic of debate: whether China should host the pivotal UN climate change talks in 2028.

The prospect of a China-hosted COP summit emerged earlier this year with reports that Beijing was eyeing a bid for the talks in two years' time, when countries will be required to announce their new plans to cut carbon emissions.

"From an international climate point of view 2028 is going to be the most important COP for the rest of this decade," says Li Shuo, director of the China climate hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute.

"China could take the lead: embracing higher ambitions themselves and making a serious diplomatic effort to convince other countries to do the same," he adds, referring to countries' climate plans, known as "nationally determined contributions" (NDCs). These are legally required under the Paris Agreement and cover just over 70 per cent of global emissions.

People familiar with the situation say Beijing officials are weighing the pros and cons of hosting, although they may not decide until next year. A key consideration is likely to be whether hosting would affect -- positively or negatively -- China's relationship with the US.

Beijing's calculation on the merits of hosting is likely to change depending on the outcome of upcoming summits between China's President Xi Jinping and his US counterpart Donald Trump, especially following the Democrats' success in the US midterm elections, and broader US-China frictions over trade and technology.

One Beijing-based energy expert, who asked not to be named, said beyond concerns over aggravating relations with the US, China also had to be sure it could commit to stronger climate goals. "Maybe they are not ready," they said.

Any potential COP bid comes at a time of increasing western concerns over Beijing becoming more assertive in global governance, which they fear will undermine the institutions, norms and values of the international system that has been weakened by American isolationism under President Trump.

Recent examples include Beijing pushing to become the host of a new global oceans treaty, a multilateral forum for protecting maritime zones, and its nomination of a senior health official to lead the World Health Organization.

There is also international concern that Beijing has increasingly interwoven climate policy with trade issues, including using the COP forums to fight western protectionism over its booming technology exports.

China has not confirmed its bid and the foreign ministry in Beijing did not respond to questions over these criticisms. In a statement to the FT it said that COP "is an important platform for global climate governance, and China will continue to actively support and participate in it".

A bid would come amid backsliding by many countries in their response to climate change. Some observers see a China-hosted COP as injecting much-needed dynamism into the debate.

"You would almost certainly have a lot of heads of state in attendance, so more potential for a spectacular success or failure than a run-of-the-mill COP," says Lauri Myllyvirta, co-founder of the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, a Europe-based research group.

"We could use a high-stakes moment that forces countries to re-examine their energy plans and climate pledges, both given the astonishing progress in clean energy and the acceleration of climate impacts," he adds.

Trump has called wind and solar the "scam of the century" while pushing US energy policy in favour of fossil fuels. Europe has weakened a series of key policies, including phasing out petrol cars, its emissions trading scheme and methane regulations.

Experts note that regardless of geopolitics, the world needs China to urgently address its high use of coal in its energy and industrial system, the biggest source of the country's emissions. That is despite a massive build-out in renewable energy and the rapid electrification of the transport system.

According to Climate Action Tracker, an independent scientific project that monitors government action, there is a "substantial gap" between Beijing's NDC targets and the reductions needed to align with the Paris Agreement goal of limiting the average global temperature rise to 1.5C this century.

China disappointed many earlier this year by setting a cautious goal to cut its carbon intensity -- emissions per unit of GDP -- by 17 per cent by the end of the decade. The goal is lower than a previous 18 per cent target, for the five years to 2025, which was narrowly missed.

Against that backdrop, experts say the prospect of talks in Beijing at which China -- and the world's ambition -- are in the spotlight is a risk worth taking.

Angel Hsu, a China expert and associate professor of public policy at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, sees the potential for China hosting "as a huge positive". While she was "disappointed" by China's moves to block progress by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, more pressure "naturally falls on China" to pull more weight globally.

Li of the Asia Society says that if China hosts it would "open up many more opportunities for the international climate discourse and also for China's domestic climate action".

He adds: "To reinject momentum into global climate action, I see no bigger variable than if China were to decide to host COP."