Bulgarian voters are choosing a new president this Sunday as Russian attacks hit ships near their coast. Pro-Moscow candidate Iliana Yotova faces liberal rival Andrey Gyurov in a tight race. Gyurov said, "Bulgaria cannot stand on the sidelines when we have increased insecurity and tension in the Black Sea."
Moscow-friendly presidential incumbent Iliana Yotova is feeling the heat from liberal rival
Bulgarian voters are deciding whether to double down on the country's pro-Moscow path in a presidential election run-off on Sunday, as vessels are being hit off its coast during intensifying battles between Russia and Ukraine over the Black Sea.
Pro-Kremlin candidate Iliana Yotova, a former journalist and MEP who has called for close dialogue with Vladimir Putin, is locked in a tight race for the largely symbolic presidency with liberal candidate Andrey Gyurov, a former central banker.
A victory for Yotova, who is serving as interim president after Rumen Radev resigned from the role ahead of his election as prime minister in April, would bring Bulgaria one step closer to Moscow.
"Bulgaria cannot stand on the sidelines when we have increased insecurity and tension in the Black Sea, we need to stand firm with our allies," Yotova's rival Gyurov told the FT. "We need to co-operate and we need to prepare for possible escalation."
Radev, who is closer to Russia than any recent Bulgarian prime minister, has already said Sofia would no longer supply arms to Ukraine, stayed out of Nato's anti-drone initiative, and threatened to veto sanctions against Russia, saying "the era of the Crusades is over".
Moscow and Kyiv are fighting for control of the Black Sea. Drone attacks have sunk several ships off the coast of Bulgaria and Romania in recent weeks, killing or wounding dozens of sailors and drawing the war closer to Nato waters.
A container ship carrying hazardous goods was struck 17 miles off the Bulgarian coast on Thursday, while Bulgaria has suggested Russia was behind two attacks on cargo ships near its waters in October.
The two candidates square off after a closely fought first round that was a disappointment for Yotova, who has positioned herself as a "president of peace'' and had been the favourite to win. In fact, Gyurov was just 42,000 votes behind her in the first round.
Gyurov blasted what he called the "hesitation" of the ruling Progressive Bulgaria group of Yotova. "We've had information about this escalation for a number of months now and there have been no actions on the side of the government. Even the National Security Council was not convened on time, only after the second wave of attacks when we had ships sink in the Black Sea and sailors were lost."
The nation of 6.5mn has weathered years of domestic political turmoil and an enduring Russian influence. Under Radev, it got its first stable government in five years after a succession of governments fell, but began to roll back western commitments.
Yotova said in the campaign home stretch that Russia should be brought back to the negotiating table and Bulgaria should play a strong part in acting as a "diplomatic channel".
"Everyone should call President Putin," she told Nova TV in Sofia. "It would be much more powerful if these diplomatic channels to Russia were opened on behalf of the entire EU."
The elected president will probably not be able to sway Sofia significantly from the west, where it is a member of Nato and the EU, said Ruslan Stefanov, director of the Centre for the Study of Democracy, a European think-tank based in Sofia.
Bulgaria could still become a nuisance to the west like Hungary was under strongman Viktor Orbán, but partners have learnt to contain that sort of threat more effectively, especially in the EU, Stefanov said.
"If there is anything we can learn from the examples of Serbia, outside the alliances, or Hungary, inside them, is that strategic ambiguity in small countries, which cannot project their geopolitical power, hurts those countries because it increases their risk premium," he said.
While Yotova can count on the added support of pro-Russian or far-right voters in the run-off, Gyurov will probably benefit from the inherent reluctance of Bulgarians to give too much power to anyone, Stefanov said.
"People don't like putting all their eggs in the same basket; that's a big chance for Gyurov," he said. "Voters are disenchanted with the establishment, with broken promises, and Yotova is suffering because she is the status quo candidate."