Breakingviews - COMMENTARY: How US allies can win from a Trump mid-term defeat

LONDON, Oct 19 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The United States' traditional allies will be less vulnerable to bullying if Donald Trump's power shrivels after next month's mid-term elections. But to maximise their advantage, they will need to act reasonably and focus on issues where the president could be out of step with the new Congress. The priorities are Ukraine, defence, trade, and artificial intelligence.

Countries in Europe and East Asia as well as Canada have suffered a series of rude shocks since Trump won the US presidency for a second time in 2024. He has heaped pressure on Ukraine to make a deal with its aggressor Russia and undermined the NATO defence alliance. He also threatened to annex Canada and seize Greenland, a territory of Denmark, a NATO ally.

Trump has launched trade wars against America's allies while twisting the arms of governments in Japan and South Korea to promise hundreds of billions of dollars of investment in the United States. He has also downplayed the risks posed by AI technology, an issue that many in the "rest of the West" consider an existential threat.

The president has often had to back down. For example, he modified his tariffs policies, first because financial markets reacted negatively, and later because the US Supreme Court said, opens new tab he did not have the authority to use emergency powers to impose the levies. Meanwhile, he cut a deal on Greenland that fell well short of annexation, perhaps in part because some members of his Republican Party disapproved.

But traditional American allies have often only partly mitigated the damage. This has been especially true of Ukraine. Earlier this month, Trump relaxed sanctions on Russian diesel exports, which could ⁠channel cash to the Kremlin's war chest. The United States also threatened to stop providing intelligence to Ukraine if it did not stop attacking Russian oil refineries, Reuters reported. Shortly after, the White House told the Pentagon to limit a critical satellite system Kyiv uses for battlefield communications and drone operations, two US officials told Reuters.

So if voters clip Trump's wings in the mid-terms, that could be an opportunity for the rest of the West. The Polymarket prediction market puts the chances of Democratic lawmakers taking control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate at 63%, opens new tab. That scenario could put multiple roadblocks in the president's way. He may face investigations of his administration's actions, legal challenges if he oversteps his authority, and even new laws to restrain him.

Trump's power could then fade further the closer he gets to the end of his second term in January 2029. And the less powerful he seems, the less others will be willing to do what he tells them.

Picking battles

But Trump would not be impotent even if the Republicans lose both houses of Congress. American presidents have a wide range of executive powers, especially in foreign policy, which do not depend on the legislative branch. Trump could also veto new laws, which legislators in both houses would need a two-thirds majority, opens new tab to override.

US allies will therefore need to pick their battles. The key will be to win over not just the Democrats but a section of the Republican Party. To do that, it will be best to avoid antagonising Trump.

Of course, if the president lashes out, foreign powers will need to respond. ⁠But a litmus test should be whether traditional Republicans view their response as reasonable. That way, if Trump escalates, he is more likely to face bipartisan opposition at home.

The top priority will be to stop Russia defeating Ukraine, which would threaten Europe's own defences. The president's overtures to Vladimir Putin, his Russian counterpart, have gone down badly with a section of his own party. Some Republican senators have said Trump's decision to relax sanctions on diesel has broken a law which prevents oil imports from Russia.

That said, it will be hard to force an unwilling president to support Ukraine. Trump could try to sabotage laws instructing him to do so. So Europe's best approach will be to coax him, as it has been doing since early 2025.

Allies should also aim to keep Trump supporting their own defence. Without Congressional support, he cannot pull out, opens new tab of NATO and may be ⁠unable, opens new tab to cancel defence pacts with Japan and South Korea. He cannot even cut US troop numbers in Europe below 76,000. But the Pentagon has launched a review of its force posture on the continent and Trump's actions have sown doubt over whether he would protect allies against attack.

Trade de-escalation

Preventing an escalation of Trump's trade wars is another priority. Here, too, the rest of the West will have supporters in Congress, as some Republicans believe in free trade and say that the president's tariffs have pushed up prices, opens new tab. Voters also opposed new levies on Canada by 57% to 20%, according to ⁠a Reuters/Ipsos poll.

But here, too, allies should not overplay their hand. After all, there is a protectionist streak in the Democratic Party, so trade barriers do not just depend on Trump's wing of the Republican Party.

That said, it may be possible to get bipartisan consensus to limit the president's arbitrary use of trade weapons, says Simon Evenett, professor of geopolitics and strategy at IMD. If the administration has to justify their use, Trump will be less able to wield tariffs as a tool of intimidation.

Meanwhile, a bipartisan majority ⁠of voters believe the US needs stricter AI regulation, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll published earlier this month. So the rest of the West may be able to make common cause with Congress on the need to regulate the industry globally.

US allies should not just look to exploit any Trump weakness, though. Whatever happens in the mid-terms, they should build their own power. For example, Europe should beef up its defences and economy, Canada should form a resilience pact with the EU and Britain should reverse Brexit. That would not just protect them from intimidation. They would also be a stronger partner for the United States if the next president wishes to revive the Western alliance.

Follow @Hugodixon, opens new tab on X

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Editing by Peter Thal Larsen; Production by Pranav Kiran

* Suggested Topics:

* BRVF

Breakingviews

Reuters Breakingviews is the world's leading source of agenda-setting financial insight. As the Reuters brand for financial commentary, we dissect the big business and economic stories as they break around the world every day. A global team of about 30 correspondents in New York, London, Hong Kong and other major cities provides expert analysis in real time.

Hugo Dixon

Thomson Reuters

Hugo Dixon is Commentator-at-Large for Reuters. He was the founding chair and editor-in-chief of Breakingviews. Before he set up Breakingviews, he was editor of the Financial Times' Lex Column. After Thomson Reuters acquired Breakingviews, Hugo founded InFacts, a journalistic enterprise making the fact-based case against Brexit. He was also one of the founders of the People's Vote which campaigned for a new referendum on whether Britain should leave the EU. He was one of the initiators of the G7's "partnership for global growth and infrastructure", a $600 billion plan to help the Global South accelerate its transition to net zero. He has put together an international group which is campaigning for the European Union to take custody of immobilised Russian sovereign assets in the Union as a first step towards using them to help Ukraine. He is also a philosopher, with a research focus on meaningful lives.