Andy Burnham signals softer tone on legal migration to Britain

Prime minister's comments come ahead of statement by home secretary Shabana Mahmood on immigration policy

Andy Burnham has struck a softer tone on legal migration to Britain, saying that numbers have fallen and that future policy must be guided by economic factors including labour shortages in some sectors.

The prime minister was speaking ahead of a long-awaited statement by home secretary Shabana Mahmood on a tightening of immigration policy, including changes to the route to permanent settlement.

Mahmood began drawing up the plans under the previous prime minister Sir Keir Starmer against a backdrop of high public concern about migration levels and the political threat posed by the anti-immigration Reform UK party.

But with legal migration numbers having dropped sharply, and Nigel Farage's populist party in decline, the home secretary is expected to soften her proposals to avoid penalising overseas health and social care workers who are already in the UK.

Speaking to ITV's Tonight, which airs this week, Burnham said it was "difficult to say" if legal migration was too high or too low, adding that numbers were down "quite significantly".

The most recent figures put annual net immigration to the UK at 171,000, about half the number in 2024 and far below the more than 900,000 net arrivals in 2022-23 in the "Boris wave".

Burnham says he believes the numbers crossing in boats are "too high, for certain". But when asked if legal migration numbers were too high, he said policy had to follow "gaps in the economy".

Burnham's stance, including reopening a debate about Britain readopting EU free-movement rules, is likely to be welcomed by business.

The prime minister added: "What I have argued is that migration and illegal immigration changed significantly with Brexit and I think we've got to be honest about that."

While there is no clear figure for the number of people potentially affected by the plans due to be published on Monday, the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford previously said that at the end of 2024 2.2mn people held visas leading to a potential five-year path to permanent settlement.

The original proposals would have imposed longer waits, sometimes up to 15 years, on that group of people.

The idea proved contentious due to the substantial extensions in the wait for permanent settlement and because they treat all members of a household as individuals. This would apply retrospectively to people who had already embarked on the process towards obtaining indefinite leave to remain in the UK.

There is a widespread expectation that Monday's plans will offer some kind of exemption for the roughly 700,000 people who came to the UK on health and care worker visas following introduction of a specialist visa for the groups in 2020.

Mahmood's changes had been intended partly to ensure the wave of people who arrived before such visas were abolished in July 2025 would have a slower path to permanent settlement.

Ahead of Monday's announcement, Sunder Katwala, director of the British Future think-tank, said it was unusual for a flagship policy to change as a result of a consultation process, as is expected to happen in this case.

"The prime minister deserves some credit for trying to listen, learn and rebalance the proposed changes," Katwala said.