Americans are unhappy. How will they vote?

The FT's focus group in the Pennsylvania battleground of Bethlehem revealed anxiety about the country ahead of the US midterm elections

Jim says he is disappointed Donald Trump has not "figured out how to shut his mouth". Roberta says she has "never felt so much anger and unhappiness in the general public". Robin says she is "a little disappointed" in the president's performance: "things are costing all of us so much more".

The comments were voiced by some of the 14 voters who took part in the FT's first US political focus group, held earlier this month in the Pennsylvania city of Bethlehem, the former steelmaking town where we are undertaking a years-long reporting project.

Bethlehem's voters could decide the battle for the US Congress. The town sits in a bellwether district in a swing state that has voted for the winning president in each election since 2008.

In a two-hour discussion over dinner four weeks before midterm election day, the group voiced their opinions on the issues that will govern their voting choices on November 3.

What emerged was a picture of broad dissatisfaction with the direction of the country in Trump's second term, coupled with a dislike of the president and his governing style. But also some support for his policies and the Republican Party.

Concerns about inflation and the cost of living dominated the exchanges. The Iran war was seen both as a strategic blunder and a source of economic pain.

"Voters across partisan divides expressed significant pessimism about the direction of the nation, with little support offered for the way leaders in Washington are carrying out their work," said Christopher Borick, political science professor at Lehigh University, who moderated the discussion.

"It appears that Republicans are unlikely to abandon their party's candidates in the midterms, but their enthusiasm for the upcoming elections is not strong. Democrats, on the other hand, appeared extremely motivated for the opportunity to cast their ballots, with . . . excitement about delivering a major blow to Republicans and the president in particular."

Here is what the group had to say.

On the country's divisions

Roberta, a Democratic voter in her seventies, was among the most outspoken on the political climate in Trump's second presidency.

"This is the first time that I've really, really become afraid for us, for our country, for our democracy," she said. "All of the things we relied on in the past, the so-called checks and balances . . . they just seem to be all falling by the wayside."

Barry, a Republican voter, said he had lived in the area for decades and feared "an openness" to other political views risked being lost.

"There was a willingness to listen to the other person, even though their viewpoint might be different," he said. "People aren't meeting, they are going on social media, it's just becoming very, very narrow."

Mike, a Republican teacher and football coach, agreed. "There's a distrust of our government as a whole -- at all levels," he said. "We're getting in our own way."

Mahir, who is in his twenties, said the political environment was "very negative" but believed there was room for some "optimism". "Things need to get worse before they get better -- I believe that this is the 'getting worse' part."

On the economy

The economy preoccupied most of the group. US inflation jumped to 3.7 per cent in September and people across the country are struggling with the high cost of living, including fuel, groceries, housing and healthcare. Record-high diesel prices have affected businesses, hitting profits and raising input costs.

Robin, a social worker and Trump supporter in her forties, was one of several who said that while her own financial situation had improved over the past two years, she felt "a little disappointed in [Trump's] performance; things are costing all of us so much more".

Jim, a Republican construction equipment salesman in his forties, said many customers, including Trump backers, were worried. "This whole gas situation right now definitely has guys unsettled, unsure what he's going to do, what's going on here?" he said. "That has to be corrected."

Janel, a 50-year-old hairstylist who votes Democrat, said the cost of living was hitting her customers, who come for cuts less frequently as they are forced to pick between having their hair done, buying food or paying their mortgage. "It is a little bit of a struggle," she said.

She added that her husband, a welder, works at a company that is doing well but has had to pay more for steel and other goods.

"He's a hard worker and I'm a hard worker, and we're 50. So now do I have to work harder? This should be when we live our life a little bit," she said.

Mike, a disenchanted Republican voter in his fifties, said: "Economically we're better off just because we have a big nest egg." He was "feeling really good about retirement". But he warned: "When I look at people around me, our kids, without our help I almost feel like they have no hope, in a way."

He admitted that he appreciated Trump's ambition to revive manufacturing in the US by imposing tariffs -- a policy that resonates in the former steelmaking town -- but was sceptical that it would be effective in the short term.

"The trouble is you can't go zero to a million in, like, a week," he said. "The idea is to encourage people to build stuff in the United States . . . [but] how many fricking years does it take to make a steel plant?"

On the war with Iran

Barry, a Republican in his sixties, felt Trump was right to take on Iran, even though it had pushed up fuel costs, saying the Islamic republic had been "problematic" for decades.

But the president was "wishy-washy" for not doubling down with more aggressive action that could have led to a collapse of the government in Tehran.

Barry's hawkish view of the military intervention in the Middle East was an outlier. Most of the group criticised the conflict because of its adverse impact on energy costs and saw it as a strategic blunder for the US.

It doesn't feel like there's an endgame [in Iran]

Justin, a Democrat who works in financial compliance in nearby New Jersey, said the president's belief that he could apply the model from the US raid on Venezuela earlier this year to Iran was "just stupidity". "You did this in Iran, and it's having an impact on me," he said.

Kyle, an independent voter in his thirties, added: "It doesn't feel like there's an endgame [in Iran]."

"There's a lot of people suffering, but I suffer with my wallet, that matters," he said. "Selfish or not, that's how I'm going to evaluate a presidency that's costing me more."

On other Trump policies

Trump's other signature policies received a mixed reception from the group. Mike, the Republican football coach and teacher, praised the effectiveness of the president's restrictions on undocumented immigrants crossing the Mexican border.

But he said the administration might have gone "a little over the top" with its raids to capture migrants in US cities and detain them en masse. "The pendulum swung a little bit too far . . . that's the beauty of America, now it seems like things are going to come back."

Nell, a Democrat who has voted for both parties in the past, said she had hoped Trump's plans to cut government spending would help eliminate waste in Washington. But she said Trump's appointment of billionaire SpaceX owner Elon Musk to spearhead the effort had been a mistake.

"We ended up with . . . a lot of disruption, a lot of dysfunction, in the services that people needed, for nothing. Because it did not get any better," she said.

As for Trump's unsuccessful efforts to mediate a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, Justin was bleak. "You're praising Russia but you're not praising the president of Ukraine," he said. "In history . . . I've never seen where you have this in place on an international level."

The AI boom championed by the Trump administration has led to the rapid building of data centres around the country and generated a public backlash because of their high consumption of water and electricity. It was also controversial.

Tommy, a young researcher in his early thirties who is a member of the Democratic Socialists of America, was scathing, calling them a "leech on our communities".

"Homeless people are hungry, people can't afford gas, there's not enough homes, schools are crumbling, and we're putting all this money . . . towards something that doesn't employ anybody," he said.

"You don't need factory workers in a data centre like you did at the Bethlehem Steel Plant, you need a couple of guys to watch security."

On voting choices

The president is not on the ballot in the midterms, but his shadow looms over Bethlehem's local congressional race between the sitting Trump-backed Republican representative Ryan Mackenzie and Democratic challenger Bob Brooks, a firefighter.

The non-partisan Cook Political Report says the contest "leans" towards the Democrat, meaning it is expected to flip, potentially helping scupper Trump's Republican majority in the House of Representatives.

Jim, a traditionally a Republican voter, was now undecided on his vote. "I haven't made my mind up," he said, but would choose in the final stretch of the campaign.

Most of the group said they were unlikely to change their vote this November.

"My morals and beliefs have not changed," said Robin. She said she would still vote Republican despite her reservations about Trump's performance.

Kate, a Republican who voted for Trump in 2016 and 2024, said his second presidency had been marked by "severe disappointment and decline all the way". She lamented the "open corruption" and that "nobody is playing by the rules".

But after the group dispersed, she said she would "continue to vote for Republican candidates if I like them", even though she expected a "blue wave" -- sweeping Democratic victory -- in November.

Ellyn, a Democratic voter, said that being Jewish put her "in a very difficult spot politically", after Israel's war in Gaza opened up a huge rift between the party's moderates and more leftwing figures over the conflict.

"I'm a registered Democrat but I do not like a lot of what's happening in the Democratic Party and a lot of the positions of the democratic socialists," she said. She said that rising antisemitism was not being "addressed" by the party.

Nobody is playing by the rules

She said attitudes towards Israel were "giving me pause generally speaking" but added it did not necessarily apply to the upcoming midterms, where Pennsylvania's Democratic governor Josh Shapiro, who is Jewish, appears to be cruising to re-election.

Tommy, a democratic socialist in his early thirties, said he would back the Democrats as a "form of harm reduction".

He cast his first presidential ballot in 2016, when Trump won his first race for the White House. But he said he was dismayed by the state of US politics in the Trump era, which is all he has experienced as an adult.

"I hear my parents or even my older brother or older sister wax poetically about 'when politics was normal'," he said. "I simply cannot relate, I have not known an American political system that was not completely torn apart by chaos and division."