The US electorate will on Tuesday vote in midterm elections for a new Congress to replace the 119th. The current body faced little scrutiny while the House spent just 383 hours in session. Polls suggest Democrats could regain control, potentially ending the period where Trump faced few checks on power.
Trump has faced little scrutiny. The midterm elections could change that
The most illuminating moment in what is widely seen as the worst US Congress in memory was when King Charles III addressed the body in April. The British monarch's speech, which praised America's separation of powers and historic checks on misuse of executive power, was interrupted by repeated ovations. That the King's words seemed chiefly aimed at his host, Donald Trump, did not stop Republicans from leaping to their feet. The irony is that Congress had abdicated its most basic duty 15 months before it heard from the King. It has not even made a show of holding the Trump administration to account.
The US electorate will on Tuesday vote in midterm elections on the new Congress to replace America's 119th. It cannot come a moment too soon. Congress's absence has been literal as well as constitutional. The House of Representatives spent 383 hours in session from January to August, by far the lowest in a midterm year since at least 1990.
Other than Trump's "big, beautiful bill", which delivered tax cuts only partially funded by cuts in healthcare spending, few reforms were passed. The only two notable bipartisan bills have largely been ignored by Trump. The first was a law mandating release of all of the Epstein files; roughly half have not been made public. The second was a bill passed after Republican senator Lindsey Graham died, giving Trump authority to impose tougher sanctions on Russia. The president responded by relaxing sanctions. Ignoring Congress has been his leitmotif.
His life under divided government could look very different. Polls suggest Democrats will regain the House of Representatives and have a good shot at retaking the Senate. The larger their margin of victory, the harder it will be for Trump to contest the outcome. Having been blocked by courts from taking control of the mail-in ballots and denied possession of state voter rolls, Trump has hinted at more direct intervention.
Though armed federal agents are barred from polling stations, disinformation about non-citizen voters triggering raids by the Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency cannot be ruled out. It would be ominous for US democracy were Trump to send masked gunmen to voting places. It would still be hard for him to overturn a clear result.
A Democratic Party takeover of Capitol Hill would trigger high expectations. Yet their power would be limited. Trump would be almost certain to veto their priorities, such as reversing healthcare cuts and abolishing ICE. He is also unlikely to comply with House or Senate investigations into his own and his administration's alleged corruption.
Congress can issue subpoenas for personnel to testify and demand files be handed over. But its enforcement powers are limited in practice. Moreover, the body can only refer prosecutions to the US Department of Justice, which is run by Todd Blanche, a Trump loyalist. The Democrats' best hope is thus to chronicle Trump's profit-making and his own and his family's gaping conflicts of interest. They should also probe the damage wrought by Elon Musk's so-called Department of Government Efficiency that shuttered parts of the US government without authorisation.
Any move to impeach Trump, however, would be rash. A third attempt would have no better chance than the first two of securing the two-thirds Senate majority needed to convict him. Such "lawfare" could also restore the president's badly tarnished standing with parts of Maga. No matter how angrily Trump reacts to the investigations, Democrats have the means to shine a light on his exorbitant abuse of power. That means educating the US public. Their hopes for the 2028 presidential election could hinge on how well or badly they do that.