Apple's record India quarter has more to it than meets the eyes

New Delhi: Apple Inc. reported its best-ever India revenue in the September quarter, even as analysts say actual volumes may have declined on higher prices and fewer discount sales. The company's shares fell after the results and were headed for a weaker opening, as investors await signs of improving volumes.

Analysts tracking the sector said India volumes may have fallen by a fifth from a year earlier, at a time India's smartphone market is navigating a difficult patch. To be sure, the maker of iPhones and MacBooks does not report country-wise sales for India, and analysts track industry channels to estimate sales.

Navkendar Singh, associate vice-president at the India unit of market research firm International Data Corp. (IDC) India said sales may have fallen as Apple rolled out price hikes during the year. "This could be a precursor to Apple doubling down on catering to serious users of its ecosystem, and have high-value users who in the long run are more liable to pay for its services as well. But, for now, Apple’s overall sales volumes were hit due to both demand being deterred by higher prices and fewer deals—as well as supplies remaining constricted,” Singh said.

Singh estimates that Apple may have sold 20-25% fewer iPhones in India in the September quarter, though at higher prices.

Apple has implemented two price hikes this year, raising iPhone prices by an average 20% in September, following a roughly 25% increase on its Mac laptops and iPads in June.

On 17 September, Mint reported, citing IDC data, that overall phone sales during the quarter may decline 25%, as soaring prices of memory chips boost prices of smartphones to laptops. In comparison, smartphones sales rose in the year-ago quarter, led by Apple's iPhone which saw sharp price cuts for older models.

Apple did not respond to an email seeking comment on its purported drop in sales volumes.

Costlier base models

Rishi Padhi, principal - emerging markets at consultancy firm Gartner, concurred, adding that the sales slowdown was likely offset by higher prices. Tarun Pathak, director of research at fellow market research firm Counterpoint India, stated that the higher base of iPhone users in India led to the company’s overall sales drop by ‘around 15%’.

“On one hand, the base offering by Apple this year started with its ‘Pro’ models, which pushes up the base price of new devices,” Gartner’s Padhi said. “The other factor is that Apple will see some natural slowdown cycles for its sales volume in India, since last year it accounted for 9-10% of all phones sold in India—a pretty high margin. At 3x the average price of other smartphones, there will be some sort of ceiling until which sales can keep growing. The result was a significant double-digit decline in sales figures this festive quarter,” he said.

Apple has clocked remarkable growth in India, soaring nearly tenfold from just 1% of phones sold in 2019 to 9.5% in 2025, reaching 14 million sales at the end of last year.

At his first-ever post-earnings analyst call, Apple's chief executive John Ternus said the July-September period saw its highest quarterly revenue in India.

“We also set a September quarter record for upgraders worldwide, as well as in the US, mainland China and India, helping to deliver our best fiscal year ever for upgraders globally,” Ternus said.

This, analysts added, also underscores that Apple’s next phase of growth could depend on selling more premium products, rather than just base or older iPhones.

“Apple’s likely push is for a differentiated ecosystem of buyers who are willing to make the extra spends. Our projections suggest almost 95% of Apple’s customers hold credit cards. Even if this hits Apple’s sales volumes, they’ll be fine with it as long as their net value goes up,” IDC’s Singh said.

Phones to ecosystem

“Although iPhone shipments declined year-on-year, Apple’s average price per device in India reached an all-time high, surpassing $1,000 during the quarter. India is moving from an iPhone growth market to a full ecosystem market for Apple, and we expect that shift to accelerate in 2027 and beyond as the installed base expands,” Counterpoint’s Pathak added.

Globally, Apple’s share price declined 1.8% after earnings and a further 2.8% in after-hours trading in the US, driven by concerns that Apple’s revenue growth was driven by higher device prices due to the chip crisis, rather than organic growth in key markets like India.