ആർട്ടിഫിഷ്യൽ ഇന്റലിജൻസ് വികസനത്തിനായി വൻകിട ടെക് കമ്പനികൾ വായ്പകളെ അമിതമായി ആശ്രയിക്കുന്നത് ആശങ്കയാകുന്നു. ഈ വർഷം മാത്രം 623 ബില്യൺ ഡോളറിന്റെ കടപ്പത്രങ്ങളാണ് ടെക് മേഖല പുറത്തിറക്കിയത്. പലിശ നിരക്കുകൾ ഉയരുന്നതും നിക്ഷേപകരുടെ സംശയങ്ങളും ഈ വൻകിട നിക്ഷേപങ്ങൾക്ക് വലിയ വെല്ലുവിളിയായി മാറുകയാണ്. വരും വർഷങ്ങളിൽ ഈ സാമ്പത്തിക ബാധ്യതകൾ കൂടുതൽ സങ്കീർണ്ണമായേക്കും.
The flood of AI investment has shifted this year from one financed by the cash generated by the world’s biggest tech companies to one that’s become increasingly reliant on their borrowing.
So much so, in fact, that the share of debt issuance this year from the tech sector alone has reached around $623 billion, according to data from Wells Fargo, and comprises a record share of borrowing from nonbank companies.
That might seem sensible, given the eye-watering tallies that are needed for the AI buildout.
Just taking the needs of the four largest hyperscalers—Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta Platforms—gets you to a total of $730 billion in capital spending this year, with another $1 trillion-plus expected in 2027. Adding in lower-credit-quality borrowing from companies such as Oracle, and neocloud spending from the likes of CoreWeave, takes the 2027 tally to around $1.6 trillion.
But the cost of that debt is rising, and the implications of the tech sector’s new reliance on leverage, which comes just as investors are starting to question the efficacy of AI investments, could be significant.
Wells Fargo analysts, led by chief equity strategist Ohsung Kwon, estimate that around a third of this year’s AI capital spending has been financed in the bond market, a level that surpasses both the shale oil boom of the mid-2000s and the telecom expansion cycle of the late 1990s.
And that debt is now getting more expensive.
This time last year, the extra yield, or spread, that investors would demand to lend to investment-grade rated companies instead of merely buying U.S. Treasury bonds was pegged at around 74 basis points. Today, that same spread has risen to around 95 basis points.
In the high-yield market, the difference is even greater, with spreads on AI related debt nearing 350 basis points, the most since May of 2025, and trading some 100 basis points north of those for non-AI related borrowers.
Lawrence Gillium, chief fixed income strategist at LPL Financial, says the divergence in spreads, with faster cost increases for lower-rated borrowers, reflects a “rational” assessment that is likely to continue.
“In investment grade, the spread gap will track the pace of issuance, so it should narrow if the buildout slows and supply eases,” he says. “In high yield, the gap reflects real exposure to the buildout itself.”
“That is where losses would show up first if AI spending slows,” he adds. “A slowdown that is good news for Treasuries and high-quality hyperscaler bonds would be bad news for the leveraged end of AI credit.”
That’s a problem now that investors’ primary question has shifted from “Who is gaining the most ground in the AI buildout?” to “Who is ready to generate the best return on the capital they’ve already committed?”
This focus on returns is only likely to get more urgent as we transition from this year’s earnings melt-up, which is expected to see collective S&P 500 profits rise by around 36%, to a growth rate in 2027 that is expected to be less than half that pace.
On top of that, investors also have to contend with a hawkish Federal Reserve, which is expected to boost its benchmark federal-funds rate for a second time this year when it meets again in December.
Further rate hikes signals, as well as the inflationary pressures tied to the U.S. war with Iran, and the AI buildout itself, is likely to add further upward pressure on Treasury bond yields.
So, too, could the impact of increased government borrowing, which is expected to take next year’s deficit past $2 trillion and test the $50 trillion mark for overall U.S. debt levels before the end of the decade.
In anticipation of those forces, the tech industry is striking fast.
Oracle raised $10 billion in debt this week (plus $10 billion in stock) as part of its AI financing push, while Microsoft closed a $25 billion bond deal last week.
Alphabet sold a $6.7 billion deal denominated in euros and Meta is reportedly preparing to tap markets for another $20 billion in debt, hot on the heels of its $97 billion equity raising deal unveiled last month.
But Meta, it should be noted, had the outlook on its AA credit rating revised to “negative” by S&P Global last week, with the ratings agency citing a “dramatic increase” in the company’s leverage and a free cash flow outlook that’s likely to remain negative “beyond 2028.” Meta’s off-balance-sheet debt isn’t doing great, either.
Whether that’s the first salvo in a credit market that’s now digesting billions in new debt, while the government adds trillions to their own borrowing pile and the Fed tells both that costs are likely to increase, remains to be seen.
But what can’t be ignored is the fact that this leverage, and its impact on the biggest and most important stocks in the tech sector, will be a huge factor for investors to consider going forward.
“Credit spreads and equities don’t operate in isolation, and market stress can become a self-fulfilling prophecy,” says Deutsche Bank’s macro strategist Henry Allen. “After all, wider spreads raise the cost of capital and tighten financial conditions, making investment harder to justify. In turn, this dampens growth, which also hurts equities.”
We’re not there yet, with the S&P 500 still within around 3% of its early October peak and entering the fifth year of its AI-led bull market with an 8000-point target firmly in sight.
But the bills are piling up. And they have to be paid.