Aharbal waterfall retreated 538 metres over 57,000 years: Study

Research flags geological instability, landslide, flood risks around Kashmir's 'Niagara Falls'

Srinagar, Nov 8: The Aharbal waterfall in south Kashmir has retreated nearly 538 metres upstream over the past 57,000 years, with fractured rocks, nearby faults and unstable slopes posing potential hazards to the popular tourist destination, a scientific study has found.

The waterfall, popularly known as the "Niagara Falls of Kashmir," has been retreating at an estimated average rate of 0.94 cm a year, driven by river erosion, the structure of underlying rocks and tectonic activity, according to the research.

Published in Results in Earth Sciences in November 2025, the study, 'Climatic, tectonic, and fluvial controls on the origin and retreat of the Aharbal Waterfall, Himalaya,' was conducted by Omar Jaan Paul, Reyaz Ahmad Dar and Prof Shakil Ahmad Romshoo of the University of Kashmir and associated research institutions.

The authors describe it as the first attempt to quantify the origin and retreat of a waterfall in the Himalayas.

Located on the Vishav River in the PirPanjal range, about 75 kilometres south of Srinagar in Kulgam district, Aharbal attracts thousands of tourists every year. The river drains a basin of around 1060 sq km and is a major tributary of the Jhelum.

Glacial deposits shaped the waterfall

The study traces the waterfall's origin to the erosion of glacial deposits, which exposed the underlying bedrock comprising basalt and agglomeratic slates of the Permian-age Panjalvolcanics.

Evidence of past glaciation, including rochemoutonnée, erratic boulders and glacial striations, is visible upstream.

The exposed bedrock is extensively fractured, with three prominent sets of joints dividing it into blocks of varying sizes. Water enters these fractures, weakens the rocks and helps detach blocks from the waterfall face. Flowing water carries away the loosened material, while gravity causes larger blocks to topple.

This process gradually shifts the waterfall upstream while maintaining its steep, near-vertical face.

Smaller cascades, step-falls, knickpoints and plunge pools downstream may mark its earlier positions. Some abandoned plunge pools and potholes are now located on rock blocks more than 10 metres above the present riverbed.

Using these features, the researchers reconstructed five stages of migration and placed the waterfall's original position about 538 metres downstream of its present location.

Retreat rate based on river data

The estimated annual retreat of 0.94 centimetres was calculated using an empirical model that balances the erosive force of flowing water against the resistance of the underlying rock.

The researchers used 43 years of Vaishav River discharge data, along with measurements of the waterfall's width, height and rock strength. A high-resolution drone survey conducted in 2021 measured the waterfall at 7.01 metres wide and 7.62 metres high.

Annual river discharge ranged from 7.34 to 63.24 cubic metres per second during the period studied, averaging 23.32 cubic metres per second.

The researchers caution that the estimated rate is a long-term average based on the assumption of constant retreat. The waterfall does not necessarily move upstream at the same pace every year. The detachment of large fractured rock blocks can cause sudden changes, making the process uneven over time.

Rock-strength tests recorded an average strength of 70.91 megapascals in fresh basalt and agglomeratic slate, compared with 65.75 megapascals in partly weathered rock. The researchers found the estimated retreat relatively high for a waterfall formed in basaltic rocks.

The study also examined the river basin's geomorphology using stream-length gradient and channel-steepness indices. Higher values along the Aharbal stretch and some upstream reaches indicated pronounced river incision and possible tectonic influence.

Faults and unstable slopes pose risks

The researchers identified several structural weaknesses around the waterfall. A fault crosses the Vishav River a few metres upstream of the present fall, while sheared rocks and fault traces are visible along both banks, particularly the right bank.

While the waterfall's formation is attributed to the erosion of glacial deposits and exposure of jointed bedrock, the authors identify nearby tectonic structures as an important factor contributing to the area's instability.

Field observations documented subsidence along a road, displaced retaining walls, fractured rock surfaces and signs of rock creep. Trees with bent, pistol-shaped trunks were also observed, which the researchers interpreted as possible evidence of gradual ground movement towards the waterfall.

A landslide along suspected fault traces on the left bank of the Vishav was another feature recorded during the investigation. However, the study cautions that a landslide alone does not establish the presence of active faulting.

The researchers warn that continued slope instability could trigger rockfalls or larger landslides, potentially blocking the river and causing water to accumulate upstream. A sudden release of the impounded water could trigger flooding and alter the river's flow.

Earthquake-induced ground shaking could further weaken water-filled fractures and dislodge rock blocks, accelerating the waterfall's retreat, the study says. In an extreme case, a major slope failure could threaten the stability of the waterfall.

The authors call for detailed geotechnical investigations, continuous monitoring of vulnerable slopes and targeted mitigation measures to reduce risks and protect Aharbal as a geo-heritage site.

The study concludes that the waterfall's evolution is shaped by the combined influence of climate, tectonic activity, river erosion and the geological structure of the area.