US midterms: Democrats lead in five battleground states as Trump approval stands at 38%

Democratic Senate candidates are leading Republicans in several key battleground states ahead of the November 3 US midterm elections, while President Donald Trump's approval rating stands at 38%, according to a new poll by The New York Times and Siena. The final set of Times/Siena surveys found Democrats ahead in five of the six battleground states currently represented by Republican senators, while the contest in Iowa was effectively tied. Democrats also held a double-digit lead in Michigan, the only state in the survey where they are defending a Senate seat. The findings point to a significant opportunity for Democrats to regain control of the Senate.

The party needs to retain its existing seats and flip at least four Republican-held seats to secure a majority. The biggest surprises came in traditionally Republican states Texas and Kansas. Democratic candidate James Talarico led Republican Ken Paxton by 50% to 43% in Texas, while Adam Hamilton was ahead of incumbent Republican Senator Roger Marshall by 49% to 44% in Kansas. Democrats also led in Maine, where Troy Jackson was ahead of Republican Senator Susan Collins by 51% to 45%; Ohio, where former senator Sherrod Brown led incumbent Jon Husted by 49% to 44%; and Alaska, where Mary Peltola held a 48% to 46% advantage over Republican Senator Dan Sullivan.

In Iowa, Democrat Josh Turek was marginally ahead of Republican Ashley Hinson, 48% to 47%, making the contest effectively tied. Michigan's Abdul El-Sayed had the largest lead among the candidates surveyed, standing at 53% against Republican Mike Rogers' 42%. Economy and cost of living emerge as key Democratic advantages Democrats held a nine-percentage-point advantage over Republicans on the cost of living, with their candidates leading on the issue in every state surveyed. Voters also gave Democratic candidates an advantage on foreign wars and on which party would do a better job for ordinary Americans.

Democratic candidates held a net favourability advantage in six of the seven states. Maine was the exception, where both Jackson and Collins had negative net ratings. Democrats were also ahead among independent voters in every state surveyed, giving the party an advantage beyond its existing support base. Late-deciding voters could offer Republicans an opening The surveys also found reasons for caution among Democrats. Voters who had made up their minds only in the preceding month favoured Republican candidates by nine percentage points. Undecided voters could also affect the final results. The findings also come with a reminder of the limits of polling.

Collins, for instance, had trailed in every survey before the 2020 election but went on to win re-election comfortably. The state-level findings highlighted distinct dynamics in individual contests. In Texas, Talarico had a 10-point net favourability advantage, with 49% of respondents viewing him favourably and 39% unfavourably. Paxton had the weakest image among the candidates surveyed, with 54% viewing him unfavourably and 33% favourably. In Kansas, Hamilton's lead came despite Trump's strong showing in the state in 2024. The poll also found that Hamilton was attracting support from 13% of Republican voters.

Alaska was the only state where the Democratic candidate's position had weakened compared with the previous Times/Siena survey in September. The latest poll was largely completed before a report alleged that political operatives aligned with Peltola had helped recruit another candidate named Dan Sullivan to contest the Senate race. Democrats need four Republican-held seats to regain Senate control A total of 35 Senate seats are up for election in the 2026 midterms, including 13 currently held by Democrats and 22 held by Republicans. To take control of the chamber, Democrats must retain all their existing seats and win four additional Republican-held seats.

The New York Times-Siena poll covered more than 6,000 likely voters across the seven states. Individual samples ranged from 610 respondents in Alaska to 1,215 in Texas. The polling was conducted between October 23 and November 1.