US midterms 2026: Will the 'Samosa Caucus' shrink? Why Indian-American votes matter

As the United States heads towards the November 3 midterm elections, Indian-Americans are seeking to strengthen their political influence, both as candidates and as voters capable of shaping closely contested races. The community, estimated at around 5.2 million, has emerged as an increasingly important electoral constituency. Beyond supporting candidates of Indian origin, diaspora organisations are also backing politicians they consider responsive to Indian-American interests and Hindu concerns. The elections will decide all 435 seats in the House of Representatives, roughly one-third of the Senate, and several gubernatorial, state legislative and local contests. Will the 'Samosa Caucus' shrink? Indian-American representation in the House could decline from six to four after two incumbent Democrats lost their primary contests. Raja Krishnamoorthi, who had hoped to become Illinois' first Hindu US senator, lost the Democratic Senate primary to Juliana Stratton in March. Michigan Congressman Shri Thanedar was defeated by Donavan McKinney in his district's Democratic primary. The four remaining Indian-American House members, Ro Khanna, Pramila Jayapal, Ami Bera and Suhas Subramanyam, are seeking re-election in Democratic-leaning districts. Attention has consequently shifted to two Democratic challengers: emergency physician Amish Shah in Arizona's 1st Congressional District and Pia Dandiya in Florida's 22nd. Shah faces Republican Jay Feely in a competitive race that some forecasters favour Democrats to win. Dandiya's contest against Republican Casey Askar remains particularly tight, with major election forecasters divided over its likely outcome. If both candidates win, the informal grouping of Indian-American lawmakers, popularly called the 'Samosa Caucus', could retain its six-member strength. One victory would leave it with five, while defeats for both would reduce it to four. Indian-American candidates beyond Congress Indian-origin candidates are also seeking prominent positions at the state and local levels. Republican Vivek Ramaswamy, endorsed by President Donald Trump, is contesting the Ohio gubernatorial election against Democrat Amy Acton. In New York, Republican Saritha Komatireddy is challenging incumbent Attorney General Letitia James, while Maryland Lieutenant Governor Aruna Miller is seeking re-election. Kerala-born Democrat Nithya Raman is contesting the Los Angeles mayoral race against incumbent Karen Bass. In Texas, Democrat Pooja Sethi is running for House District 47, seeking to become the first Hindu and Indian-American member of the state legislature. Fellow Democrat Sandeep Srivastava faces Republican Matt Shaheen in District 66. Why could Indian-American votes matter? According to the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, the US has approximately 2.6 million eligible Indian-American voters. Although relatively small nationally, their concentration in states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia, Texas and New Jersey could make them influential where electoral margins are narrow. The 2026 Asian American and Pacific Islander Voter Survey by AAPI Data and APIAVote suggests a strong Democratic preference among Indian-American respondents. Around 66 per cent favoured a Democratic Senate candidate, compared with 22 per cent supporting a Republican. The survey also found that 90 per cent of registered Indian-American voters intended to participate in the midterms, with 71 per cent certain they would vote. Diaspora groups look beyond Indian-origin candidates Political participation is extending beyond representation. Community organisations are mobilising support for candidates across party lines based on their positions on diaspora-related issues. Romesh Japra, founder of Americans4Hindus Political Action Committee, told PTI, "It is not enough to support Indian-Americans in the elections. We also need to support those sympathetic to the Indian diaspora and Hindus." The organisation has backed Democrats including James Walkinshaw, Suzan DelBene, Pia Dandiya and Gregory Meeks, alongside Republicans Jenny Rae Le Roux and Senator James Risch. Former White House adviser Ajay Jain Bhutoria, meanwhile, urged candidates to build broader electoral coalitions. "My advice to Indian-American candidates is that they should look at issues beyond the diaspora and focus on the aspirations of the Congressional districts they seek to represent," he said. With high voter participation, growing political organisation and a presence in several competitive constituencies, Indian-Americans could play a meaningful role in determining individual races, even as the future size of their congressional representation remains uncertain.