Tamil Nadu will likely avoid the worst of a severe cyclonic storm brewing over the Bay of Bengal. The system should intensify by November 18 but will move toward Andhra Pradesh and Odisha. V.R. Durai said, "there was currently no indication of heavy rainfall over the State" for now.
The weather system brewing over the Bay of Bengal is likely to intensify into a severe cyclonic storm by November 18. However, Tamil Nadu may remain largely on the fringes of its impact, according to the Regional Meteorological Centre (RMC).
The season’s third cyclone is also likely to bypass Tamil Nadu and impact coastal Andhra Pradesh and Odisha. The current weather predictions indicate that the well marked low-pressure area over southeast Bay of Bengal is expected to gain strength as a cyclonic storm over the central parts of south and adjoining westcentral Bay of Bengal around November 16 evening. It is likely to further intensify into a severe cyclonic storm by November 18.
While the weather agency is likely to provide clarity on the system’s movement and likely landfall location only after it consolidates into a depression, heavy rainfall warnings has been largely issued for other States, including Andaman and Nicobar islands, coastal Andhra Pradesh and Odisha, till November 20.
The cyclone is likely to be named ‘Akvan’, suggested by Iran under the naming list of tropical cyclones over North Indian Ocean.
Officials of the RMC said the possibility of heavy rainfall in Tamil Nadu remained low, given the system’s current position and expected trajectory. Rainfall of light to moderate intensity is likely to be concentrated over the southern and Western Ghats districts till November 20.
V.R. Durai, Head, Regional Weather Forecasting Centre, RMC, said there was currently no indication of heavy rainfall over the State. Winds from Arabian sea and a minor system over south Tamil Nadu would trigger rainfall over the southern and Western Ghats districts.
Major weather disturbances usually form in the southwest Bay of Bengal during November and move towards Tamil Nadu. But, this time, the weather system has again had its genesis over southeast Bay of Bengal. Its north-northwestwards may not favour a trajectory towards Tamil Nadu.
The RMC would monitor prospects of the system’s outer bands bringing rainfall to TN along its movement. The season usually witnesses the formation of two or three major systems every year. But, the formation of three cyclones in a month is rather unusual and needs further research. A strong El Niño could be one of the contributing factors.
The warm sea surface temperatures could fuel more such weather systems during the season and help Tamil Nadu overcome rainfall deficit in various districts, he added.