Ignored warnings: How the GOP alienated Indian American voters ahead of midterms

Texas Indian American and South Asian voters swung sharply to Democrats in the midterms after right-wing anti-Indian rhetoric alienated key GOP blocs.

Pre-election data and initial voting trends show a sharp shift among Indian American and South Asian voters in Texas away from the Republican Party ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. Overwhelming support from these voting blocs helped secure historic Democratic victories across the state, including the governor's mansion, a pivotal US Senate seat, and several down-ballot races.

Although Republicans and President Donald Trump had made notable gains with the demographic in 2024, rising anti-Indian rhetoric within conservative circles drastically reversed those trends. Community leaders warned before the vote that right-wing candidates and influencers questioning South Asian loyalty to the U.S. alienated even conservative voters, driving one of Texas' key electorates firmly back toward the Democratic Party.

Support halved

An analysis published Monday by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace found that Republicans had roughly halved their support among Indian Americans compared with 2024, when about one in three said they would back the party, a record high. "That one in three has now disappeared and gone back to what it was before," said Sumitra Badrinathan, the American University professor who conducted the study, as quoted in HuffPost. She added that discrimination was not "the only issue on the table", noting that the community shared the wider public's concerns, such as rising gas and grocery costs.

Results from Collin County, a Dallas suburb with a large Indian American population, appear to show the impact of the rhetoric. Bo French, whose post on X about the crowd at a University of Texas football game drew national attention to the right's growing hostility toward Indian Americans, underperformed Texas Governor Greg Abbott in the county's neighbourhoods with large South Asian populations. Both Abbott and French lost to their Democratic challengers.

French is among those on the right who have for over a year directed anti-immigrant rhetoric at Indian Americans, part of broader criticism of H-1B skilled worker visas, which they see as a means for employers to hire cheap foreign labour over Americans.

Mainstream Republican leaders largely ignored his message. Neither Trump nor Vice President JD Vance, whose wife is Indian American, commented, though Trump left French off his endorsement list before Election Day. Abbott said only that French's remarks were "not my message".

Independents a factor

Badrinathan cautioned that neither party should take the community's support for granted. Her report found that roughly a quarter of respondents identified as independents. "Elections have shown that about half of this population is solidly Democratic," she said.