Can Democrats take back Senate? Five key races that could reshape Trump's final two years

Americans are voting in the 2026 US midterm elections, with control of Congress hanging in the balance. The outcome will determine how much legislative freedom President Donald Trump has during the final two years of his second term and whether Democrats can gain greater oversight of his administration. Republicans currently control both chambers of Congress. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control of the Senate, while a similar four-seat gain in the House of Representatives would give them a majority there. Although dozens of Senate contests are being held across the country, a handful of closely fought races could prove decisive.

The Cook Political Report had identified some Senate contests as toss-ups during the campaign, reflecting how competitive the battle for the upper chamber had become. Here are five key Senate races to watch. 1. Texas: James Talarico vs Ken Paxton Texas has emerged as one of the most closely watched contests of the election, with Democrat James Talarico attempting to end his party's decades-long losing streak in statewide races. Talarico, a former schoolteacher and state representative, is challenging Republican Ken Paxton, the state's attorney general and a close Trump ally. The campaign has been particularly acrimonious, with Talarico highlighting Paxton's 2023 impeachment by the Republican-controlled state House over allegations of corruption, bribery and abuse of power.

Paxton denied the charges and was later acquitted by the state Senate, calling the impeachment a "politically motivated sham from the beginning". Paxton, meanwhile, has attacked Talarico over his positions on immigration, transgender rights, law enforcement and energy policy. The contest has also attracted substantial campaign spending, with billionaire Elon Musk among the prominent financial backers supporting Paxton. A Democratic victory in Texas, which Trump won by nearly 14 percentage points in 2024, would mark a major shift in the state's political landscape. 2. Ohio: Sherrod Brown vs Jon Husted Ohio, which has increasingly leaned Republican in recent presidential elections, has returned to the spotlight as a competitive Senate battleground.

Democrat Sherrod Brown is attempting to reclaim the seat he lost in 2024, taking on Republican Jon Husted, who was appointed to the position after JD Vance became vice-president in 2025. Brown, who represented Ohio in the Senate for three terms, is campaigning on his record of advocating for workers and manufacturing communities. Husted, meanwhile, is highlighting his business experience and promises of economic growth. The economy, particularly Trump's tariff policies and their impact on Ohio's manufacturing and automobile industries, has emerged as a central issue. 3. Michigan: Abdul El-Sayed vs Mike Rogers Michigan's Senate contest has become one of the more contentious races, with Democrat Abdul El-Sayed facing Republican Mike Rogers.

El-Sayed, a doctor and former public health official, is campaigning on healthcare reform, lower costs and opposition to corporate influence in politics. He supports a government-run health insurance system and the abolition of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). Rogers, a former FBI agent and congressman, has emphasised his military and intelligence background while maintaining Trump's endorsement. El-Sayed's criticism of Israel has also become a point of contention during the campaign. Trump and Rogers have attempted to link him to the Muslim Brotherhood, an organisation El-Sayed has denounced.

Trump has also invoked the September 11 attacks and called him a "jihadist" without citing evidence. A victory would make El-Sayed the first Muslim person elected to the US Senate. 4. Alaska: Mary Peltola vs Dan Sullivan Alaska's Senate race has drawn attention over an unusual controversy involving two candidates named Dan Sullivan. Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan is seeking a third term against Democrat Mary Peltola, a former member of the House of Representatives and the first Alaska Native elected to Congress. Peltola has focused her campaign on what she describes as "fish, family, freedom", while criticising Sullivan's record on the state's natural resources.

Sullivan has accused her campaign of being linked to an effort to introduce a second candidate with the same name to confuse Republican voters. Peltola has denied the allegation. The controversy has prompted a state investigation and legal action. Alaska's ranked-choice voting system, which allows voters to rank candidates by preference, adds another layer of uncertainty to the contest. 5. Maine: Susan Collins vs Troy Jackson Republican Senator Susan Collins is seeking a sixth term in Maine, a state that has consistently backed Democratic presidential candidates in recent elections. Collins, one of the few Republican senators who voted to convict Trump during his 2021 impeachment trial, has built a political reputation around her centrist positions and occasional breaks with her party.

Her challenger, Democrat Troy Jackson, is a former president of the Maine state Senate and a logger who has sought to connect with working-class voters. Both candidates have criticised Trump's tariffs on Canada, which have become a significant concern in the border state. Jackson also supports abolishing ICE, a position Collins opposes.