Israel voted on October 27 and got no clear answer. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud-led bloc won 53 seats, falling short of the 61 needed for a majority. As talks start, Netanyahu will probably get the first shot at building a coalition. The country now faces potential instability and further elections.
Netanyahu will probably get the first shot at building a coalition.
Tel Aviv:
Nobody has a clear path to power in Israel. The fallout will reach well beyond Israel, including New Delhi. Israel voted on October 27 and got no clear answer. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud-led bloc won the most seats at 53, in the 120-member Knesset. A majority takes 61. Former army chief Gadi Eisenkot's opposition alliance took 48, and Arab-led parties won a record 19.
Turnout was close to 78 per cent, a record in itself. It was the first national vote since the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack and the wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran that came after it.
Netanyahu asked voters to back him as the leader who'd steered the country through all that. They didn't, at least not fully. His bloc fell from 68 seats to 53. But the opposition didn't win either, and getting the required numbers to form a government will take compromises it may not want to make.
Ways This Could Play Out
Netanyahu stays on as caretaker prime minister: Netanyahu will probably get the first shot at building a coalition. President Isaac Herzog will meet party representatives before picking someone for the job. Talks could drag through several rounds. If nobody gets there, Israelis go back to the polls.
An Eisenkot government: The sums work. The opposition's 48 plus the Arab parties' 19 makes 67. The politics don't. Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Liberman have both said no to relying on Arab parties, whether as partners or as outside backers.
The Arab parties' best-ever result has still shifted the balance. Arab citizens make up about a fifth of Israel's population, and their bigger bloc gives them real leverage, even though parts of the establishment would rather they stayed out.
A unity government: Likud and some opposition parties could muster a majority. But Netanyahu would have to loosen his grip on his far-right and ultra-Orthodox allies. The opposition would have to drop its main campaign promise, which was to end his time as prime minister. Eisenkot has ruled out serving under him.
Defections, or another election: Netanyahu could try to peel off individual opposition lawmakers. If talks collapse, Israel faces yet another vote, with budgets, legislation and security policy stuck in the meantime. The upshot: Netanyahu is weaker, not finished. Whether he stays depends on whether the opposition can get its act together.
Iran, Gaza And The Wider Region
The timing is awkward. Israel is still in a standoff with Iran, Gaza's future is unsettled, Lebanon remains tense, and the West Bank is simmering. Swap the prime minister, and you may not swap the strategy. Eisenkot, a former IDF chief, takes a hard line on Iran and Hamas. He also opposes Palestinian statehood.
Where he parts ways with Netanyahu is closer to home: how the government is run, coalition deals, and exemptions from military service for ultra-Orthodox Jews.
Reuters reports that analysts expect any Israeli leader to stay broadly in step with Washington if US President Donald Trump decides to resume military action against Tehran.
The real unknown is what Netanyahu does with his powers in the meantime. As a caretaker, he still makes the security calls. A fresh flare-up with Iran might rally the public. It might push parties towards a unity government. It might also bring retaliation and a longer war. Whatever Iran does next could hit Gulf security, energy infrastructure, shipping lanes and oil prices, and countries that import their fuel, India among them, would feel it fast.
On Gaza, neither man has budged from the demand that Hamas be disarmed. A new prime minister might change how Israel talks to the US or how it handles settler violence in the West Bank. But the election hasn't produced any new consensus on Palestinian statehood. And a government that's fighting for its majority isn't well placed to make painful concessions.
Why India Is Watching
The India-Israel relationship isn't just about buying weapons anymore. It now covers joint production, technology, artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, farming, water, space and trade.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi's February 2026 visit to Israel took it up a level, to a "Special Strategic Partnership for Peace, Innovation and Prosperity". The two sides agreed to deepen defence ties and work together on emerging technologies. They'd already signed a defence cooperation memorandum in November 2025.
The friendship between PM Modi and Netanyahu has made the partnership highly visible. It doesn't depend on it, though. Defence deals, technology transfers and research projects have been built up over years, and a new face in Jerusalem won't undo them.
What might change is the tone. An Eisenkot government could try to mend fences with Europe and answer some of the criticism Israel has faced over Gaza. For New Delhi, the job would be to build a working relationship with new leaders without losing momentum.
Defence stays at the core. India leans on Israeli technology for air defence, surveillance, drones and precision weapons. The next phase is likely to be about making things together and sharing technology, in line with India's push to build more of its own defence equipment.
The region makes it messier. India has big interests in the Gulf, old ties with Iran and a huge community across the Middle East. Its energy supplies and trade routes are exposed to any instability there. The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor and I2U2 both need calm to work, and a fresh Israel-Iran conflict could set them back.
So India will have to walk two tracks at once: deepen the partnership with Israel while keeping its channels open to Arab countries and Iran. Where it stands on a political solution for Palestinians will matter too.
The Bottom Line
Israel's voters haven't settled anything. Netanyahu has lost his majority, and the opposition hasn't shown it can unite. The Arab parties are stronger than they've ever been, but how much that counts depends on whether anyone will work with them. The next government may sound different. The threats shaping Israel's foreign policy won't go away. For India, the partnership will be tested less by who sits in the prime minister's chair than by how both countries steer through a rough neighbourhood.
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