Lula wins by 4.4 million votes. What does Brazil's choice mean for BRICS & India?

Brazil's president missed a big meeting in India to fight an election at home. He won. He leads the country in Latin America that trades most with India.

In September, BRICS leaders came to New Delhi. They met at Bharat Mandapam on September 12. One leader did not come. Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva stayed home to win votes. He sent his foreign minister instead.

Six weeks later, his hard work paid off. On Sunday, October 25, Brazil held its final vote between the top two candidates. Lula won with 51.8 per cent of the vote. His rival, Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, got 48.2 per cent. About 124 million people voted for one of the two. Lula was ahead by 4.4 million votes. This is Lula's fourth term as president.

"I want to thank the Brazilian people for this generosity they have shown me for so long," Lula said, adding that Brazil would not be "anyone's backyard". His rival did not accept the result. Bolsonaro called it "inexplicable" and said he would try to get the vote cancelled. Voting day was messy. Both sides had asked for more time to vote. A Supreme Court judge added two hours, but some polling booths had already shut their machines.

Why should India care? India and Brazil both helped start BRICS. The group now has 11 countries, including China, Russia, and South Africa. Together, these 11 countries now produce more goods and services than the Group of Seven, or the G7.

Lula has argued that Brazil should stay friends with all the big powers. India tries to do the same with the United States and China.

A COUNTRY CUT DOWN THE MIDDLE

Lula won 13 states. Bolsonaro won 14. The Northeast backed Lula. More than two in three voters there chose him. The South went the other way. More than three in five voters there chose Bolsonaro. In the North, the race was almost a tie: Lula was ahead by just 1,079 votes.

How did Lula win fewer states but more votes? The map can fool you. Lula's states cover nearly three-fifths of Brazil's land. But fewer than half of the votes were cast in those states. The answer is the Northeast. Lula got 13.7 million more votes than Bolsonaro there.

Across the country, Lula won by only 4.4 million votes. His huge lead in one region was more than enough. One voter put it this way: "I think people woke up about the risk of a Bolsonaro government after the first round," said Alessandra Miguel, a spa worker in Rocinha, a large slum in Rio de Janeiro.

THE CLUB THAT OUTGREW THE RICH WORLD

Brazil's vote matters beyond the country because BRICS has grown big. Its 11 countries now account for about two-fifths of everything the world produces, according to the International Monetary Fund. The G7 makes more than a quarter. This count uses the same prices everywhere. A haircut costs less in Delhi than in New York, but this way of counting gives both the same value. Economists call it purchasing-power parity.

BRICS passed the G7 in 2014. This counts all 11 of today's members, even those that joined later. By 2031, the IMF expects BRICS to make 43.1 per cent, and the G7 25.8 per cent.

Two things change this picture. Count in plain US dollars instead, and the G7 is still bigger. Or count only the first five members -- Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa -- then BRICS passed the G7 only in 2020. Inside the group, China makes nearly half of everything. India makes about a fifth.

INDIA BUYS MORE THAN IT SELLS

For India, the bigger story is trade. India and Brazil bought and sold goods worth $15.1 billion to each other in 2025-26, according to the Commerce Ministry's Export Import Data Bank. India's financial year runs from April to March.

That is nearly twice as much as in 2010-11. No country in Latin America and the Caribbean trades more with India. Peru comes second, at $10 billion, the ministry's figures show.

But now India buys more than it sells. In 2025-26, India sold Brazil goods worth $7 billion. It bought goods worth $8.1 billion. That left India about $1 billion short. What India bought from Brazil grew by nearly half in just one year. The figures do not say which goods made the jump.

Still, Brazil is a small part of India's trade. It makes up just 1.2 per cent of all the goods India buys and sells.

Both leaders want more. In July 2025, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Lula set a goal. They want $20 billion in trade within five years. To reach it, trade must grow from 5.8 to 7.3 per cent every year, our calculation shows. Over the past 15 years, it has grown 4.7 per cent a year on average.

THE FIGHT IS NOT OVER

His rival is not giving up. Bolsonaro, 45, had promised closer ties with US President Donald Trump. He had not accepted defeat as of October 26.

WHAT INDIA HAS RIDING ON IT

India led BRICS this year. Like India, Lula's Brazil does not want to pick a side between the United States and China.

Trade is the harder part. The $20 billion goal needs faster growth than before. Lula missed the New Delhi meeting to win at home. The trade figures now give India more to talk about with him than it had a year ago.