സമുദ്രതാപനിലയിലെ വർധനവ് മൂലം രൂപപ്പെടുന്ന 'സൂപ്പർ എൽ നിനോ' ആഗോളതലത്തിൽ വലിയ പ്രതിസന്ധി സൃഷ്ടിക്കുന്നു. അടുത്ത ആറുമാസത്തിനുള്ളിൽ ലോകമെമ്പാടും 3.73 ലക്ഷം പേർക്ക് ജീവൻ നഷ്ടപ്പെട്ടേക്കാം. ഇതിൽ ഇന്ത്യയിൽ മാത്രം 55,000 മരണങ്ങൾ സംഭവിക്കുമെന്നാണ് ക്ലൈമറ്റ് ഇംപാക്ട് ലാബിന്റെ പുതിയ ട്രാക്കർ മുന്നറിയിപ്പ് നൽകുന്നത്. മാർച്ച് മാസത്തോടെ സ്ഥിതി കൂടുതൽ വഷളായേക്കും.
El Nino causes oceans to release huge amounts of heat, warming Earth's atmosphere.
Earth's weather is shaped by several natural climate phenomena. Among them, El Nino is turning out to be a record-breaking beast this year, releasing extraordinary amounts of heat from the ocean and fuelling droughts, floods and severe storms. By September, the climate pattern had already raised the temperature in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean by 3.08 degrees, more than any other El Nino ever recorded. Some experts are already calling it a "Super El Nino", and now a map from the Climate Impact Lab shows where it will cause the most additional heat-related deaths.
Called El Nino Heat Mortality Tracker, more than 373,000 additional people will perish in the next six months.
"Being able to anticipate the deadly effects of extreme heat is a major step forward. It means we can identify where people face the greatest risks and give decision-makers a chance to act before lives are lost. The Tracker provides this information for the Super El Nino we're living through today," said Michael Greenstone, a co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab.
The grim forecast says El Nino's heat deaths will be concentrated overwhelmingly in the Global South. India is expected to experience the highest toll between October and March with about 55,000 heat-related deaths projected, the mortality tracker claims. Most of these deaths will take place in March.
The number is very close to Nigeria's expected toll of 56,000.
The tracker further predicts that Southeast Asia will remain a major hotspot, with Indonesia projected to see about 29,000 deaths due to El Nino's heat. This is followed by Brazil, where the toll is expected to be 19,000.
Earlier this week, a weather expert told NDTV that air pollution is likely to be aggravated in Mumbai because of the El Nino factor.
Dr. Gufran Beig, founder-project director SAFAR and chair professor at NIAS, IISc, said, "In a city like Mumbai, the large-scale circulations or winds are going to be slower, meaning that the city will lose its natural protection that it enjoys when the winds are stronger."
The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has already warned that this year's El Nino is the strongest since 1950 and that its peak is yet to come.
"El Nino will continue to intensify ahead of its forecast peak in December. It is likely to bring above-average temperatures to much of the globe and shift rainfall patterns, increasing the risk of drought and floods in different regions," the UN's weather and climate agency said. It added that El Nino's effects will continue till early 2027.
El Nino warms surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, bringing worldwide changes in winds, pressure and rainfall patterns.
It typically takes place every two to seven years and lasts around nine to 12 months.
Conditions oscillate between El Nino and its opposite La Nina, with neutral conditions in between.
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