Wheat acreage is expected to remain stable in the 2026-27 rabi season despite weak monsoon rainfall. M L Jat said, "availability of irrigation facilities in major wheat-producing states was expected to limit the impact of below-normal rainfall." The government set a production target of 121 million tonnes for this year.
The area under wheat cultivation is expected to remain broadly stable in the ongoing 2026-27 rabi season despite deficient monsoon rainfall, raising hopes of another bumper harvest, Mint reported on Saturday.
The agriculture ministry has set a wheat production target of 121 million tonnes for the 2026-27 crop year, following record output of 120.7 million tonnes in the previous year. Wheat acreage stood at 33.6 million hectares in 2025-26, according to farm ministry data.
M L Jat, secretary in the Department of Agricultural Research and Education and director general of the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR), told Mint that the availability of irrigation facilities in major wheat-producing states was expected to limit the impact of below-normal rainfall on sowing decisions.
The main wheat-producing states include Punjab, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Gujarat.
Wheat is a major rabi crop, generally sown in October and November and harvested in March and April. The final production outcome will depend on the area sown, crop conditions and yields during the growing season.
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Irrigation cushions rainfall deficit
Rainfall during the southwest monsoon season, from June to September, was 13 per cent below normal. The north-western region recorded a deficit of 6 per cent, while central India received 3 per cent less rainfall than normal, according to the report.
However, rainfall in October has supported soil moisture conditions in parts of the north-west, particularly in key wheat-growing areas of Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and Haryana.
Wheat requires less irrigation than paddy, limiting the impact of uneven rainfall on planting decisions.
The rainfall situation remains uneven across regions. Between October 1 and 14, the north-western region received 12 mm of rainfall against the normal 13.1 mm, a deficit of 9 per cent. Central India recorded a much steeper deficit of 95 per cent, receiving 1.9 mm against the normal 37.3 mm.
Stocks remain above buffer norms
India's wheat stocks provide an additional cushion against supply pressures. Stocks in the central pool stood at 47.44 million tonnes on September 16, against a buffer requirement of 27.58 million tonnes.
The surplus gives the government flexibility to meet food-security requirements, supply grain under welfare schemes and manage domestic availability. However, high stocks alone do not guarantee lower prices, which also depend on market demand, procurement costs and government policy.
The government has also raised the minimum support price (MSP) of wheat to ₹2,610 per quintal for the 2027-28 marketing season, from ₹2,585 per quintal in the previous season.
While the production target points to expectations of continued strong supplies, the actual harvest will depend on weather conditions and crop performance in the coming months.
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