US Fed rate hike buzz: American inflation highest since COVID - what does it mean for Nifty, Sensex, gold rates? Decoded

US Fed Rate Hike | Gold Rate Today | Sensex Today | Stocks to Buy Today: US producer prices increased by the most in 4-1/2 years in September amid rising costs for goods and services, the latest indication of inflation broadening out beyond energy products. This is the biggest rise in American inflation since COVID, fueling the US Fed rate-hike buzz ahead of the US Fed meeting at the end of this month. However, stock market experts believe that it won't have much impact on the Indian stock market, especially the key benchmark indices — Nifty 50, Sensex and the Bank Nifty, as Dalal Street has already discounted the US Fed rate hike up to the December 2026 meeting.

Experts said that US inflation hitting its highest level since COVID is expected to put pressure on the Donald Trump administration and predicted a strong suppression of US bond yields, which is a good sign for the Nifty 50, Sensex, and Bank Nifty indices. They said that the Nifty 50 is on track to reach at least 25,500 by the end of 2026. For gold and silver rates, they predicted ₹1.60 lakh per 10 gm and ₹2.40 lakh per kg, respectively, at the end of 2026.

US Fed rate hike impact on gold, Indian stock market

Decoding the US PPI September 2026 data and the US inflation data, Anuj Gupta, a SEBI-registered market expert, said, “Both US inflation and the US PPI data are negative for the US economy. In fact, their inflation is rising, and their job creation is falling, a sign which may create uncertainty about the US economic condition.”

Anuj Gupta said that the Donald Trump administration can't afford this uncertainty, and hence, he will be left with two choices for the immediate relief: bond yield suppression or additional US dollar printing. As the second one is dangerous for the US dollar, the Trump administration is expected to use administrative tools to contain inflation and US bond yields. He said that a 25 bps US Fed rate hike is already discounted for the October Fed meet.

“Soaring inflation is expected to put pressure on the Trump administration to either contain the US inflation by containing the US Treasury Yields or go for an additional US dollar printing. Both will have a negative impact on the US dollar and the US bond yields. However, it will be good news for the Indian stock market and gold prices,” said Gupta.

Expecting the equities and gold prices to rebound sharply, Amit Goel, Chief Global Strategist at PACE 360, said, “The Indian stock market has already discounted the US Fed rate hike for up to December 2026. So, a 25 bps US Fed rate hike won't have much impact on the Indian stocks and gold rates across the world.”

Anti-AI trade: Nifty to test 25,500?

Pointing towards the anti-AI trade in the Asian markets, Seema Srivastava, Senior Research Analyst at SMC Global Securities, said, “The anti-AI trade is signalling the beginning of AI blowout. We witnessed IT stock rally this week after the strong Accenture guidance. This could happen because the US IT major hinted in its guidance about a major shift from AI spending to traditional IT spending. This means AI-money, which was shifting to the US bonds in a one-way direction, will now have a competitor in the form of IT giants.”

Expecting an AI blowout by the end of November or by the beginning of December 2026, Amit Goel of PACE 360 said, “I am highly bullish on the rate-sensitive segments like banking, real estate, and auto. I am also bullish on the commodity stocks.”

“Except pharma and consumer durables, all segments are expected to attract strong buying; however, the above-mentioned segments are expected to outperform others,” Amit Goel said, adding, “The Nifty 50 index may end the year 2026 after testing 25,500 in normal conditions. In the case of an early AI blowout, which is visible in the anti-AI trade, we may see the Nifty 50 index to hit a new lifetime high by the end of December 2026 or in January 2027.”

The PACE 360 expert said the 30-stock index BSE Sensex may end around 80,000 to 82,000 by the end of 2026.

Portfolio management | Stocks to buy today

Amit Goel of PACE 360 recommended a 10-stock portfolio for a new investor ahead of the Indian market's bottom. These stcks are as follows:

Banking

HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank in the private segment. SBI and Canara Bank are in the PSU segment.

Auto

Maruti Suzuki India Ltd or MSL, and Bajaj Auto.

Real Estate

DLF

Commodities

Hindustan Zinc, JSW Steel.

Apart from these, Amit Goel of PACE 360 recommended buying shares of Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL), as the Sensex and Nifty heavyweight is available at a big discount and predicted RIL shares to touch ₹1500 by the end of December 2026.

US Fed rate hike | Impact on Gold and Silver rates

“As I said earlier, the market has already discounted a 25 bps US Fed rate hike, and the probability of a rate hike has jumped from 20% to 27% after the announcement of US inflation data and the US PPI data. As the US Fed meeting is around two weeks away, this percentage may go further northward,” said SEBI-registered expert Anuj Gupta.

Speaking on the gold and silver price targets by the end of 2026, Amit Goel of PACE 360 said, “The COMEX gold rate is expected to end up in between $4,500 to $4,600 per ounce, whereas the MCX gold rate may end up in between ₹1,58,000 per 10 gms to ₹1,60,000 per 10 gms.”

On prediction for the silver rates by the end of 2026, Amit Goel said, “The COMEX silver may end around $67 per ounce, whereas the MCX silver rate may end up around ₹2,37,000 per kg to ₹2,40,000 per kg.”