Silver may rally 40% by Dhanteras 2027, but experts advise caution amid near-term weakness

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Dhanteras is traditionally seen as an occasion to welcome wealth and abundance, with many investors using the auspicious day to add gold and silver to their portfolios.

Commodity experts now estimate that silver could rise to Rs 2,65,000 in one year, or at least 40 percent by Dhanteras 2027, and gold by 20-30 percent during the same period.

According to Renisha Chainani, Chief Research Officer at Augmont, silver, currently at Rs 1.88 lakh per kg (around $52/oz), could gain 40 percent to reach approximately Rs 2.65 lakh (around $75). Gold, currently at Rs 1.45 lakh per 10 grams (around $4,100/oz), could rise 20 percent to nearly Rs 1.75 lakh by Diwali 2027, equivalent to around $4,950/oz internationally.

"These targets imply the ratio easing to about 67. In India, the rupee near 94.5 and the 15 percent import duty should keep domestic prices firm," Chainani said.

Silver has fallen to a near one-year low since November 2025 as elevated oil prices, strong US economic data and persistent inflation concerns fuel expectations of higher interest rates for longer, lifting real yields and weakening demand for non-yielding precious metals, such as silver.

The metal slipped 0.52 percent to $52.10 per ounce today (Nov. 6) on Comex, while domestic silver spot price posted a marginal loss to Rs 1,82,453 per kilogram on the Multi Commodity Exchange.

Silver outlook for 3-12 months

Nirpendra Yadav, Sr. Research Analyst at Bonanza Portfolio, estimates that silver will likely remain volatile in the next 12 months, with a cautious near-term bias but scope for a gradual recovery if monetary and investment conditions become more supportive.

"Silver is still struggling to establish a durable uptrend. Technically, for the 6-12 months horizon, silver could see a recovery if gold resumes its upward trend and investment flows return to precious metals," Yadav said.

He estimates that if silver prices break and sustain above $62, then prices may move towards $70, which would act as crucial resistance, and further upside is possible only above this level. Meanwhile, a decisive break below $47 may keep silver prices under pressure.

On MCX, Rs 1,60,000 will act as a crucial support level, while Rs 215,000 will act as a hurdle. "However, the short- to mid-term trend has become down, so silver prices may remain sideways to downside or may trade in a range for the upcoming months," Yadav said.

Commodity analysts reason that the biggest near-term risk is the interest-rate and bond-yield environment. Higher US real yields and a stronger dollar tend to reduce the appeal of non-yielding precious metals.

Silver is particularly vulnerable because it has a higher beta to gold and tends to magnify both upward and downward moves. If expectations of further monetary tightening persist, silver could continue to underperform gold in the near term. Conversely, any shift towards lower interest rates, softer bond yields or a weaker US dollar could trigger a meaningful recovery.

What should investors watch for

Investors should closely monitor US real yields and Federal Reserve policy, the US dollar, gold prices, and the gold-silver ratio, as these will remain key drivers of silver investment demand.

At the same time, developments in Chinese and Indian physical demand, solar-panel silver consumption, ETF or ETP flows, exchange inventories, recycling and mine supply will provide clues about the underlying physical market.

Sustained investment flows could tighten the market again, while rising inventories and continued ETF outflows would signal that the earlier supply squeeze is unwinding.

According to Swapnil Aggarwal, Director of VSRK Capital, the silver outlook remains Cautious for 2026-end, with recovery likely only in the long term.

"If silver prices come down to around Rs 1,75,000, investors may consider adding small quantities. While a long-term recovery in silver is possible, I do not expect any significant recovery in the short term. Investors should remain cautious and monitor the interest rate outlook before making fresh decisions," Swapnil said.