Samvat 2083: How much gold and silver should your portfolio hold?

Yet, as investors gear up for special Muhurat trading to mark the start of Samvat 2083—a symbolic festive session traditionally seen as an auspicious time to reset portfolios and initiate new long-term positions—market participants see potential for a rebound. Analysts recommend gold for safe-haven stability, silver for growth, and a staggered buying approach to cushion against the inevitable volatility.

The recent pullback has done more than dent prices. Higher US bond yields, a firm dollar, and expectations of interest rates staying higher have prompted some fund managers to turn cautious and pare their exposure to gold, even as its long-term role as a portfolio diversifier remains intact.

Somnath Mukherjee, chief investment officer at ASK Private Wealth, is tactically underweight on gold, citing rising volatility and weakening diversification benefits. Gold’s safe-haven appeal has come under question as its correlation with other asset classes has weakened, while cyclical shifts in these relationships have made them less reliable indicators of future prices, he said.

He expects gold to underperform in a rising interest-rate environment, with domestic regulatory restrictions—such as the hike in gold import duty from 6% to 15% in May 2026 and mutual fund curbs on large fresh subscriptions to gold ETFs—adding to the pressure.

More broadly, Middle East tensions, a stronger US dollar, and elevated US interest rates are weighing on gold. However, steady central-bank purchases and ETF inflows could support prices and keep the longer-term bull case alive, market participants said.

Satish Dondapati, fund manager at Kotak Mahindra AMC, said softer US bond yields and a weaker dollar should support gold. However, the Fed’s hawkish stance and expectations of higher-for-longer interest rates have kept prices under pressure. The Iran conflict has also disrupted global energy markets, pushing crude prices higher and fuelling inflation concerns.

Despite geopolitical tensions and inflation risks, Dondapati noted that gold has failed to gain ground as markets remain focused on the Fed’s interest-rate outlook. “However, the recent correction does not change the long-term investment case for gold, particularly as high interest rates may not be sustainable for an extended period,” he said.

Dondapati expects gold to remain under pressure in the near term, with further volatility possible. He advises investors against deploying their entire investment at current levels, recommending staggered buying on declines instead. Nevertheless, he believes gold can remain part of a long-term portfolio as a hedge against uncertainty and a source of diversification.

Rakesh Pujara, smallcase manager at Compounding Wealth Advisors, has a different view. “We expect Indian equities and gold to perform comparably well this year, and reducing exposure to gold now could prove a costly mistake. For anyone building a multi-asset allocation, gold deserves a meaningful and lasting place in it,” he said.

‘Gold for stability, silver for growth’

Pujara expects both gold and silver to deliver strong returns, potentially in the high double digits in Samvat 2083. Silver is likely to be more volatile, but he believes the worst of the correction is behind both metals.

Mukherjee, meanwhile, would not go overweight silver at this stage. “Silver is an industrial commodity and today has an added higher level of volatility due to elevated financial market flows,” he said.

Nikunj Saraf, CEO of Choice Wealth, is positive on silver but flags the risks. “With the gold-silver ratio near 80, above its long-run average, silver looks relatively cheap, and its twin role as a monetary and industrial metal (solar, electric vehicles, electronics) gives it a demand engine gold lacks,” he said.

However, silver’s plunge from above $120 to near $50 this year serves as a clear warning: while it offers greater upside, it also carries significantly higher drawdown risk, he added.

For the coming Samvat his stance is to own both, but as a hedge rather than a bet. He recommends a 10-15% precious-metals allocation: overweight gold for stability, with a smaller allocation to silver for growth.

Meanwhile, Pujara sees room for further gains. Technically, a breakout from a prolonged base is usually read as bullish, with previous resistance often turning into support during a pullback. “We therefore view the current phase as one of accumulation, with scope for both gold and silver to rally from here.”

The next turning point for gold, according to Manav Modi, commodities analyst at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, could emerge when real yields stop rising, particularly if persistent inflation, fiscal concerns or slowing economic growth begin to alter the monetary policy outlook.

“We continue to maintain a buy-on-dips approach towards gold… In the domestic market, assuming USD/INR at 96, we see ₹1,35,000 as a favourable accumulation zone, with a short-term target of ₹1,48,000 and a medium-term target of ₹1,60,000- ₹1,68,000.” Modi added that silver offers greater upside leverage, but investors should remain mindful of its significantly higher volatility.

Dipti Sharma

Dipti has spent nearly a decade happily knee-deep in the fast-moving, occasionally nerve-wracking, and always fascinating world of stock markets, tracking everything from sharp sell-offs to surprise rallies, and the narratives that drive them. She began her journalism journey at Informist, sharpened her market instincts at CNBC Digital and Moneycontrol, and is now charting new territory with Mint. Here, she is exploring new ground, bringing together sharp analysis, on-ground insights, and a keen eye for what really moves markets.Before stepping into journalism, Dipti studied law and worked with a solicitor firm for close to three years, an experience that gave her a strong foundation in analytical thinking, contracts, and corporate structures. But the pull of markets and storytelling proved stronger, prompting a switch from law to journalism.She writes about stocks and investments, but that’s only part of the story. Dipti also teams up with market experts to turn complex trends into sharp, easy-to-understand videos, occasionally peeks at deals and acquisitions, and regularly picks the brains of industry leaders. Somewhere between earnings calls, market swings, and boardroom chatter, she’s always looking for the next story that explains what’s really moving the markets.