The rupee closed at 93.93 per US dollar on Monday, ending a five-day winning streak. State-run banks bought dollars, causing the currency to fall from Friday’s close of 93.91. Experts said the overall outlook for the rupee remains positive, supported by lower crude prices and improving foreign capital inflows.
The Indian currency closed at 93.93 per US dollar (USD) against last Friday's close of 93.91 and in intraday trade, it tested a high/ low of 93.69/94.11
The rupee closed a shade weaker on Monday, ending a five-day winning streak, as state-run banks bought dollars at the RBI's behest amid thin trading volumes.
The Indian currency closed at 93.93 per US dollar (USD) against last Friday's close of 93.91. Intraday, it tested a high/ low of 93.69/94.11.
Dilip Parmar, Senior Research Analyst, HDFC Securities, noted that the rupee registered a technical retracement, snapping a five-day winning streak amid state-run bank dollar buying ahead of a market holiday.
The intraday correction followed morning gains catalysed by a soft dollar index, resilient foreign institutional inflows and weaker crude oil pricing, he added.
Parmar said market participants are now closely monitoring Tuesday's upcoming US inflation data for fresh directional cues. In the near term, spot USDINR will find key support at 93.50 and resistance at 94.30.
Amit Pabari, MD, CR Forex Advisors, observed that any progress towards peace in West Asia will reduce the risk premium in crude oil and provide further support to the rupee.
Further, the return of foreign capital is another important support for the rupee, as fresh equity investments create demand for the Indian currency. Pabari said: "The overall outlook for the rupee remains positive, supported by lower crude prices, improving foreign flows and hopes of de-escalation in West Asia.
"With USD/INR breaking below the 94.00 mark, the probability of further rupee appreciation towards 93.50 and 93.00 has increased."
Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist, Bank of Baroda, opined that lower crude price is good for the trade balance as well as currency, which is why the rupee will show signs of appreciation in the next few days. As long as oil is down, the rupee will gain notwithstanding the strength of the dollar in the near term.