The Nifty fell for a third straight day on Thursday as the rupee snapped its eight-day run and crude topped $112. Equities closed lower as fresh West Asia tensions pushed oil prices up. "Continued US-Iran tensions and uncertainty across West Asia are keeping crude prices elevated," said Jateen Trivedi.
Sensex closed at 73,249.39, down 460.30 (intraday low 73,005.11). Nifty 50 at 22,687.65, down 123.70, forming a doji and signaling indecision
Equities closed lower for a third consecutive session on Thursday, dragged down by a fresh surge in crude oil prices after Houthi rebels attacked a Saudi Aramco oilfield, snapping what had briefly looked like a stabilising market. Adding to the pressure, leveraged bets on Indian stocks are on course for their first monthly decline since March, with margin-funded positions falling to ₹1.56 trillion from a record ₹1.6 trillion in September, as small- and mid-cap stocks, which make up 46 per cent of the total leverage book, continued to unwind.
The BSE Sensex closed at 73,249.39, down 460.30 points or 0.62 per cent, after touching an intraday low of 73,005.11. The NSE Nifty 50 settled at 22,687.65, down 123.70 points or 0.54 per cent, forming a doji candle that reflected indecision through the session. The index opened 124 points lower, fell to an intraday low of 22,554.85, recovered to 22,785, and then slid back as sellers re-emerged at higher levels. Bajaj Finance, Cipla and UltraTech Cement were the top Nifty gainers, while Nestle India, which fell over 2 per cent after FSSAI issued notices over alleged misleading product claims, Eternal and HDFC Life led the declines.
"Downward spiral continued due to external factors, as a fresh escalation in the West Asia conflict pushed oil prices over $110 a barrel, resulting in renewed selling pressure in domestic equities," said Ankur Punj, Managing Director, Equirus Wealth. "Concerns over an uptick in inflation due to higher crude oil prices and persistent FII selling in local shares could further drive investors to safe-haven dollar assets."
Brent crude surged roughly 3 per cent to around $112-$113 a barrel, with WTI near $100. The RBI's October MPC minutes, released Wednesday, flagged broadening inflationary pressures and showed a 25-basis-point repo rate hike to 5.50 per cent, with two members opposing the shift in stance to calibrated tightening. Motilal Oswal now expects a cumulative 100-basis-point hike, taking the repo rate to 6.25 per cent.
The Indian rupee snapped its eight-session winning streak, falling around 36 paise to close at 94.82 against the dollar. "Continued US-Iran tensions and uncertainty across West Asia are keeping crude prices elevated, raising concerns over India's import bill," said Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst at LKP Securities, who pegs the rupee range at 94.45-95.25 near term. Asian markets fell 2.5-3.5 per cent, and Dow futures were trading 380 points lower. Global funds have pulled more than $32 billion from Indian equities this year, a record, and the NSE 500 is now down nearly 9 per cent from its September peak. Pharma, PSU Banks and Healthcare were among the few sectors that ended with marginal gains, while Media, FMCG and IT led sectoral losses. The Nifty Midcap 100 fell 0.87 per cent and the Smallcap 100 declined 1.14 per cent to its lowest level since June 12.
Looking ahead, results from Infosys, Adani Power, JSW Steel, Tata Motors and CG Power are due on Friday and could drive stock-specific moves. US initial jobless claims and S&P Global PMI data are also due, ahead of policy decisions by the US Federal Reserve, the ECB and the Bank of Japan next week. "In the near term, foreign flows could remain under pressure as investors stay cautious on yields," said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments, adding that "market direction will depend on Q2 earnings delivery and management commentary on the demand outlook."