The Indian rupee opened on a positive note against the dollar on Tuesday as crude oil prices fell and FIIs turned net buyers. Trading at 94.82, the currency gained strength. "We expect the Rupee to strengthen further against the dollar," said forex trader Amit Pabari regarding the current market trend.

The Indian rupee opens on a positive note against the dollar on Tuesday, supported by lower crude oil prices and FIIs turning net buyers.

Around 1:40 PM, it was trading at 94.82 against the dollar, compared to the previous day's close of 94.84.

"We expect the Rupee to strengthen further against the dollar. We believe we are seeing signs of the USD/INR pair correcting lower," says Amit Pabari, an experienced trader in forex.

"The 94.20-94.00 level is looking like a key support level, and the 95.30-95.50 level will be seen as a strong resistance area."

"If we see a continued fall below the 94.00 level, it could trigger further appreciation of the rupee, with USD/INR moving lower to 93.00 levels in the coming days."

In May 2026, the Indian Rupee hit a low of 96.96 against the dollar but was then intervened by the RBI.

Oil plummet & FIIS turn net buyers

Brent Crude fell below $105 per barrel following a sharp drop of more than 7% last session after diplomatic breakthroughs between the US and Iran alleviated concerns about further supply disruptions.

US crude oil futures were up 0.12% at $96.58 per barrel. It has fallen 4.18% over the last week.

Crude oil prices have fallen sharply due to diplomatic breakthroughs between Iran and the US reducing fears of further escalation of conflict and any disruption to oil supplies.

Masoud Pezeshkian, the president of Iran said his government had been given more powers by the supreme leader to negotiate for peace.

Donald Trump, the US president also said there had been progress in negotiations with Iran and Iran officials also implied a deal was now in sight after three days of Qatar-mediated talks.

FIIs turned net buyers at the start of November, buying a net Rs 3,114.68 crore worth of Indian stocks. DIIs were net sellers on Day 1 of November, selling Rs 392 crore worth of stock.

Rupee Drivers

With Americans voting today, the mid-term elections can impact the balance of power in Congress. This can impact how much Trump's economic agenda can be pushed through and therefore impact global markets.

Currently, Republicans have a 53-47 majority in the Senate, with all 435 seats in the House up for grabs. Democrats need to win a net 4 seats in the Senate to take control. If they lose ground in either house, then Trump's agenda around tariffs, taxes, government spending and trade could face more resistance.

Historically, the President's party have lost ground in the house in the last five mid-terms. Four times they have actually lost control of the house.

Depending on the outcome of the elections, we could see an impact on Treasury yields, the dollar and global sentiment. A weaker dollar and increased risk appetite could mean foreign inflows into India, boosting the rupee. However if yields rise in the US, it could strengthen the dollar and cause pressure on EM currencies.

From War Premium to Peace Discount - Crude Oil Falls Sharply Ahead of US Mid-Terms

Brent crude prices dropped 7.63% on Monday to $104.77 a barrel hitting a three week low. Hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough between the US and Iran reduced concerns about long-term supply disruptions in the Middle East. President Trump indicated that Tehran was willing to negotiate and Iranian officials also indicated they were willing to negotiate further, causing hope for a resolution.

Lower crude oil prices could help reduce the import bill for India, reducing inflationary pressures and reducing demand for dollars from oil companies. This could help boost the rupee if there is a resolution as a result of the diplomatic breakthrough.

US Yields Dip - Could Dollar Continue to Come Under Pressure?

The 10-year US Treasury Yield fell to 4.89% on Monday, its lowest since mid-September. Lower crude prices reduced concerns about inflation. Hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough between the US and Iran reduced concerns about supply risks. With mid-terms in the US fast approaching along with key economic data such as the jobs report, investors are looking for signs of what the Fed will do next. Despite keeping rates last week, the market still priced in a 75% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike in December.

Lower US yields could make the dollar less attractive to investors and encourage foreign inflows, helping to boost the rupee. However, expectations of another rate hike from the Fed could cap any falls in the dollar and create volatility in the currency markets.