Raamdeo Agrawal said market recovery could surprise as earnings stay strong despite FII caution. He noted that aggregate results grew 25% year-on-year, supporting the market. While foreign investors remain cautious due to geopolitical issues and the rupee, Agrawal believes the upward movement will surprise once valuations reach 18 times trailing.
Strong corporate earnings and reasonable valuations could set the stage for a market recovery, but uncertainty around the rupee and geopolitical developments continues to keep foreign institutional investors (FIIs) on the sidelines, according to Raamdeo Agrawal, Chairman and Co-Founder of Motilal Oswal Financial Services.
"Once this quarter is over, I think index will end at about 18 times.. Once you have 18 times trailing, you're scraping the bottom. The upward movement will surprise you," he said, while adding that predicting the timing of a market rebound is impossible.
Agrawal said India's earnings growth continues to support the broader market despite the lack of foreign inflows. "The aggregate all the results declared is about 25% year-on-year. So you can't ask for anything more as far as the earning side is concerned," he said.
However, he noted that geopolitical uncertainty and concerns around the rupee are making overseas investors cautious.
Agrawal said any relief on FPI taxation would improve India's long-term appeal for global capital, although he does not see it as the deciding factor for foreign investors.
Instead, he believes clarity on the currency and geopolitical environment will play a larger role in bringing overseas flows back to Indian equities.
Speaking after the company's July-September quarter earnings, Agrawal said he remains focused on earnings rather than short-term market movements.
He also believes the second half of the financial year should remain healthy for Motilal Oswal, supported by momentum in asset management, wealth management and investment banking. "We expect even the second half also to be robust," he said, adding that the company's deal pipeline remains strong.