Nifty reclaims 24,500 as crude prices ease: Can the rally extend further?

Nifty extended its winning streak to a sixth consecutive session on Thursday, surging 576 points, or 2.4%, to close at 24,536. This marked the index's sharpest single-day percentage gain since April 8, 2026, and its highest closing level in nearly three months.

The benchmark has now advanced over 8% in six sessions, its strongest such rally since February 8, 2021.

The index opened with a gap-up of more than 400 points and sustained its upward momentum through the session, ending firmly in positive territory.

Bajaj Finance, Shriram Finance and Mahindra & Mahindra were among the top Nifty gainers, while Apollo Hospitals, ONGC and NTPC emerged as the key laggards.

Sectoral performance was broadly positive, with all indices except Nifty Media and Nifty Chemicals closing in the green. Auto, Financial Services, Realty and Private Bank stocks led the gains.

The broader market also participated in the rally, with the Nifty Midcap 100 rising 1.90% and the Nifty Smallcap 100 gaining 0.56%.

The Indian rupee strengthened for a fifth consecutive session, appreciating 17 paise to close at 94.47 against the US dollar. This was its strongest level since June 30, 2026. A weaker US dollar, easing US Treasury yields, foreign fund inflows and lower crude oil prices supported the domestic currency.

Nifty outlook

The near-term outlook for Indian equities remains positive, supported by easing crude oil prices, a resumption in foreign institutional investor (FII) buying and firm global cues. With the festive season approaching, improving sentiment and expectations of stronger domestic demand could provide further support to the market.

Brent crude has declined nearly 16% this week to around $94 per barrel, easing concerns over the potential impact of the West Asia conflict on energy supplies and India's import bill.

The outcome of the US midterm elections has also lifted global sentiment, amid expectations of a more measured approach to trade and tariffs. The US dollar has weakened, while the yield on the 10-year US Treasury has eased to around 4.85%, providing additional support to risk appetite.

Indian equities have also outperformed their Asian peers so far in Q3FY27. The Nifty has gained 8.5% during the quarter, while the MSCI Asia Pacific index has declined 7.6%. Meanwhile, Q2FY27 earnings are running ahead of estimates, with improving earnings visibility and healthy domestic demand expected to sustain the positive near-term bias.

Investors will track Q2FY27 results from Hindalco, Bosch, Siemens, Aster DM Healthcare, Gland Pharma, Voltas, Jubilant FoodWorks and Data Patterns (India), among others.

What do analysts expect?

Nandish Shah of HDFC Securities said the Nifty had decisively reclaimed its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 23,997 for the first time since February 26, 2026. He termed this a meaningful bullish development that reinforces the improving momentum.

Going ahead, immediate resistance for the index is seen at 24,773, followed by 24,990. On the downside, support has shifted higher to 24,300.

Sudeep Shah of SBI Securities said the 24,430-24,400 zone is likely to act as a crucial support area for the index. As long as the Nifty sustains above 24,400, the ongoing bullish momentum is expected to continue, with the index likely to test the 24,650-24,680 zone in the near term.

Vatsal Bhuva of LKP Securities said the Nifty had strengthened its technical outlook by reclaiming all key moving averages on the daily chart, signalling a bullish trend reversal.

He sees immediate support around 24,200, while 24,000 remains a crucial positional support level. On the upside, resistance is placed at 24,800 and 25,000. Bhuva recommended a buy-on-dips strategy.