Nifty drops below 25,000: Why traders fear a 'painful' slide is just getting started.

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The Nifty 50 remained in negative territory throughout the session before closing 0.6 percent lower on profit booking on November 13, snapping its three-day winning streak. While the broader technical structure remains positive, with short-term moving averages positioned above medium- and long-term moving averages, momentum indicators point to possible consolidation in the coming sessions.

In terms of key levels, a break below the 25,000 mark next week could extend profit booking, while a decisive breach of the key support zone of 24,800–24,700 could accelerate selling pressure. On the upside, a move above the recent swing high of 25,425 could trigger a sharp rally, according to market experts.

The Nifty 50 opened around 90 points lower and recovered towards 25,250, but the rebound failed to sustain, leaving the index under pressure throughout the session. It eventually closed at 25,144, down 155 points or 0.61 percent, with volumes lower than those recorded in the previous sessions.

On the daily charts, the index formed a bearish candle with a lower shadow, indicating buying interest at lower levels despite the prevailing selling pressure. It continued to trade comfortably above all key moving averages, which were trending upwards. The RSI dipped to 75.22 but remained above its signal line. The MACD maintained its upward trajectory, although the green histogram bar contracted for the fourth consecutive session, indicating a gradual loss of momentum.

For the week, the Nifty 50 gained 0.63 percent and formed a high-wave or doji-like candlestick pattern on the weekly charts, indicating indecision between bulls and bears. However, the higher-high and higher-low formation remains intact, keeping the broader trend positive.

According to Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, the overall chart structure of the Nifty remains positive, and the ongoing consolidation or weakness could offer a buying opportunity near lower support levels.

"The current weakness is expected to end soon by next week and the immediate supports to be watched at 24,800-24,700. However, immediate resistance is placed around 25,400 and a sustainable move above this hurdle could open next round of upside in the market," he said.

The weekly options data suggests that the Nifty 50 could trade within a broad range of 24,500–25,500, where the maximum Put and Call open interest is concentrated. Among the immediate resistance levels, the 25,400 and 25,200 strikes have the next-highest Call open interest. On the downside, the 25,000 and 25,100 strikes have the next-highest Put open interest, making them potential immediate support zones for the index.

Meanwhile, the India VIX, widely known as the fear index, extended its decline, falling 6.75 percent to 15.49 and offering some comfort to the bulls. However, a decline below the 14 mark would be needed for volatility to enter a more comfortable zone for market participants.

Bank Nifty

The Bank Nifty underperformed the Nifty 50, declining 484 points or 0.79 percent to close at 61,034, with volumes lower than those recorded in the previous sessions.

On the daily timeframe, the index formed a bearish candle with a lower shadow within the previous day's bullish candle, resembling a bearish harami pattern near the highs. This is generally considered a potential trend-reversal pattern, although confirmation in the subsequent sessions will be crucial.

Despite the recent weakness, the broader technical structure remains strong, with the Bank Nifty trading comfortably above all key moving averages, which continue to trend upwards. The RSI declined moderately to 75.70 but remained above its signal line and within the super-bullish zone, suggesting that the underlying bullish momentum remains intact and the ongoing decline could represent temporary consolidation within the prevailing uptrend.

The MACD maintained its upward trajectory, although the green histogram bar contracted for the first time after expanding consistently over the previous 10 sessions, signalling some moderation in bullish momentum.

According to Sudeep Shah, Head – Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, a decisive breach of Thursday's low of 60,723 could accelerate bearish momentum and increase the likelihood of further downside.

"On the upside, the 61,550–61,600 zone is likely to pose a significant resistance hurdle. A decisive move above this zone would be essential to revive bullish momentum and strengthen the prospects of a fresh upward move," he said.