Jio Platforms share price could rise 51% in a bull case scenario, Motilal Oswal projects on listing day

Jio Platforms Ltd., has received its second initiation on the day of its listing on Wednesday, October 28, this time from brokerage firm Motilal Oswal.

The firm has initiated coverage on Jio Platforms with a "buy" recommendation and a base case price target of ₹1,350, indicating a 21% upside potential from its issue price of ₹1,119. Motilal Oswal joins Nomura, who also initiated coverage on Jio Platforms on its listing day with a "buy" rating and a price target of ₹1,340.

Scaling up of the digital platforms will offer the next leg of growth for Jio Platforms beyond the connectivity business. The digital platforms include cloud, enterprise communications, IoT, and managed services, along with international tie-ups for its 5G/UBR technology, Motilal Oswal wrote in its note.

Motilal Oswal is expecting Jio Platforms' revenue to grow at a Compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14%, reported EBITDA to deliver a 15% CAGR and Profit After Tax to grow at a 20% CAGR over financial year 2026-2029 driven by robust subscriber net additions, the flow-through of nearly 15% tariff hikes from March 2027, a continued acceleration in the HBB subscriber base, and the scaling up of the digital platform offerings.

Rising profitability and range-bound capex should generate cumulative Free Cash Flow of ₹1.46 lakh crore for Jio Platforms over financial year 2026-2029 and enable the company to achieve a net cash position by financial year 2029, Motilal Oswal's note said.

At the IPO price, Jio Platforms trades at par with our estimated valuations of Bharti Airtel's India business. We believe Jio Platforms could trade at a premium to Bharti Airtel's India business over the near term, driven by its market leadership, greater influence over industry tariffs, and low liquidity.MOTILAL OSWAL ON JIO PLATFORMS

Motilal Oswal's Bull Case Scenario On Jio Platforms

Under its bull case, Motilal Oswal expects a 16% revenue CAGR for Jio Platforms, compared to the base case projection of 14%. The stronger growth will be driven by a ~8% blended ARPU CAGR over financial year 2026-2029 and higher HBB subscriber addition, the note said.

Stronger revenue growth, ~67% incremental margin over financial year 2026-2029 compared to 64% in the base case, and higher margins in the non-Jio business, could drive a 18.5% reported EBITDA CAGR over financial year 2026-2029, compared to 15% in the base case.

In its bull case, Motilal Oswal has ascribed a EV/EBITDA multiple of 13 times its estimated earnings for financial year 2029, compared to 11.5 times in its base case.

Jio Platforms' IPO is India's biggest IPO in history, and the ₹30,213 crore issue received record demand of ₹7.4 lakh crore, including bids from anchor and public investors.