COMEX gold futures traded around $4,030 on Tuesday as the Federal Reserve started its two-day policy meeting. Silver fell to an 11-month low. Jateen Trivedi said, “COMEX Gold range can be seen between $3,950–$4,100 ahead of the policy outcome.” Investors now wait for the Fed to share its future rate path.
COMEX gold futures were trading around $4,030, down 0.20 per cent, on Tuesday as the Federal Reserve kicked off its two-day policy meeting, with investors awaiting guidance on the future rate path. COMEX silver fell harder, down 1 per cent to around $53.80, near its weakest level in 11 months.
Gold shed more than 4 per cent last week as the 10-year US Treasury yield approached 5 per cent, raising the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding metal. The Fed is widely expected to hold rates unchanged at 3.75 per cent–4 per cent on Wednesday. “...markets continue to assign over 80 per cent odds to a December Fed rate hike, limiting gold’s recovery,” said Akshat Siddhant, Lead Quant Analyst at Mudrex.
On the MCX, gold was trading around ₹142,900, down 0.12 per cent, recovering from an opening gap-down near ₹142,580. The rupee weakened for a third consecutive session to around ₹95.14 against the US dollar, pressured by importer dollar demand, elevated crude oil prices and foreign fund outflows. MCX silver traded around ₹194,470, down 0.68 per cent, with the rupee’s depreciation partially offsetting the decline in international prices. The gold-silver ratio stood at approximately 74.8:1, with gold continuing to outperform silver on a relative basis.
In crude oil, WTI fell 0.30 per cent to around $100.95 per barrel as diplomatic talks between Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Turkey and Iranian leaders raised hopes of an easing in hostilities. Brent crude was near $115.10 per barrel. MCX crude oil was down 1.03 per cent at around ₹9,623, testing key support in the ₹9,500–9,600 zone.
Supply-side risks, however, remained significant. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventories have fallen to their lowest level since October 1982, while continued attacks on Saudi infrastructure kept supply disruption concerns in the market.
“...COMEX Gold range can be seen between $3,950–$4,100 ahead of the policy outcome, after which the next trend will depend on the Fed’s decision and commentary,” said Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst - Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities. US third-quarter GDP and PCE inflation data, due Thursday, are expected to further shape December rate expectations.