Gold trades at Rs 1,45,353 for 10 grams of 24-carat gold in Indian markets, lower than the October 19 close. Prices got support from fear and lower bond yields, but a stronger dollar pressured the metal. Investors now watch the US Fed and global tensions as markets await policy updates.

The metal is caught between pressure from yields and the dollar, and support from fear. In the international market, gold is around $ 4,162, down by 0.9%, while in the Indian markets, 10-gram 24-carat gold trades at Rs 1,45,353, lower than the previous close in the spot market on October 19.

Here is what moved the price on Monday

Gold climbed above $4,170 an ounce, extending its recent gains. Dovish remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh prompted traders to scale back expectations of an October rate hike.

Speaking at the IMF’s annual meetings in Bangkok on Friday, Warsh avoided signalling the outcome of this month’s FOMC meeting. He noted that hotter-than-expected inflation had not changed his assessment of the US economy.

The Fed has since entered its blackout period ahead of the October 27-28 policy meeting. Markets are pricing in over an 85% probability of rates remaining unchanged.

Why bond yields matter so much for gold

One of the major factors influencing gold currently is the bond yield. The precious metal recovered most of its losses thanks to declining bond yields and diminished expectations of an October Federal Reserve rate hike.

The US 10-year Treasury yield slipped to around 5.06% on Monday, hovering near four-week lows. The yield on the US 30 Year Bond rose to 5.45% on October 19, 2026, a 0.02 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.16 points and is 0.87 points higher than a year ago.

A stronger dollar and a restless world

The dollar had weakened on Friday after Warsh’s IMF speech. On Monday, it rose toward 102. It benefited mainly from the euro’s weakness following violent protests in France and other European countries, and from escalating hostilities between Russia and Ukraine.

Investors also kept a close watch on the Middle East. Clashes between Saudi Arabia and Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen showed little sign of easing, and tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz continued.

Is fear helping gold?

Gold also benefited from safe-haven demand. Growing concerns over AI-related investments triggered an equity selloff and pushed bond yields lower.

Escalating tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe kept oil prices elevated. Oil trades around $108 on Monday. Violent protests in France and other European countries added to broader market uncertainty.

Who is betting on gold next week?

It is a light week for data. Housing numbers, weekly jobless claims, and Friday’s PMI and consumer sentiment reports are the highlights.

The latest Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey showed half of Wall Street on the fence on gold’s near-term price direction. Less than half of Main Street sentiment crept closer to a bearish majority after another failed breakout.

Four experts, or 33%, expect gold prices to gain ground during the week ahead. Only two, representing 17%, saw the yellow metal declining. The remaining six analysts, 50% of the total, said they couldn’t predict gold’s direction or expected more sideways churn next week.