Gold surged to a record high in January before a sharp correction hit the market. As Dhanteras approaches, experts suggest this dip offers a buying opportunity for households. Vandana Bharti said, "the sharp correction in gold and silver prices could present an opportunity for investors, with the precious metals potentially nearing a bottom."
Gold surged to a record high of nearly $5,600 an ounce in January before correcting sharply. Silver climbed above $100 an ounce before recording an even steeper fall. Geopolitical uncertainty, changing expectations around US monetary policy and movements in bond yields and the dollar contributed to the volatility.
Dhanteras remains an important occasion for Indian households to purchase gold and silver, which are traditionally associated with prosperity and wealth preservation. The festival also coincides with the post-monsoon harvest and precedes the peak wedding season, supporting seasonal demand for physical bullion.
Domestic prices, however, are influenced by international bullion rates, the rupee-dollar exchange rate and local premiums. While festive demand may support physical purchases, global monetary policy, bond yields, currency movements and investment flows remain the main drivers of international gold prices.
Religare Broking said global investment demand for gold remained mixed in the first half of 2026 but recovered sharply in the third quarter, indicating renewed investor interest despite price volatility. It said exchange-traded fund flows, retail purchases and changing expectations around global monetary policy would remain important price drivers.
The brokerage recommended accumulating gold in the Rs 1,30,000-Rs 1,35,000 range, with targets of Rs 1,50,000-Rs 1,58,000 and key support at Rs 1,21,000. For silver, it suggested accumulation in the Rs 1,50,000-Rs 1,63,000 range, with targets of Rs 2,17,000-Rs 2,55,000 and major support at Rs 1,09,000.
Vandana Bharti, Head of Commodity Research at SMC Global Securities, said the sharp correction in gold and silver prices could present an opportunity for investors, with the precious metals potentially nearing a bottom. Despite the recent sell-off, both metals remain above their levels on the previous Dhanteras, keeping their year-on-year returns positive.
Bharti said the correction had encouraged physical and ETF buying globally. She expects gold to find support at $4,025-$4,050 an ounce, with a potential rebound towards $4,175. In the domestic market, she expects gold to trade between Rs 1,40,000 and Rs 1,45,000. She also said gold and silver had delivered annualised returns of about 14-15 per cent and 18-22 per cent, respectively, over the past decade.
Manav Modi, Bullion Analyst at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, said the turning point for gold may come when real yields stop rising, particularly if inflation expectations remain elevated, political and fiscal uncertainty increases, or monetary tightening begins to hurt economic growth.
Motilal Oswal maintained a buy-on-dips stance and identified $3,800-$3,900 as an accumulation zone for international gold. It set a short-term target of $4,200 and medium-term targets of $4,500-$4,700. In the domestic market, it identified Rs 1,35,000 as an accumulation zone, with a short-term target of Rs 1,48,000 and medium-term targets of Rs 1,60,000-Rs 1,68,000.
A stabilisation in real yields could support gold, while a stronger dollar or higher yields could keep prices under pressure. The recent correction may allow investors to accumulate gold and silver in phases instead of investing the entire amount at once, but festive demand does not necessarily lead to an immediate rise in international prices.
Gold and silver can help diversify a portfolio, but their prices remain vulnerable to global macroeconomic developments and may undergo further corrections. Investors buying this Dhanteras should therefore weigh the analysts' accumulation ranges against their own investment horizon, risk appetite and portfolio allocation.