Crude oil may extend losses next week, Brent seen testing $90-92/barrel: Analysts

Crude oil prices may remain under pressure next week as expectations of ample supply and rising inventories keep a lid on prices, even as geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran could trigger volatility, analysts said. On the data front, investors will track weekly crude oil stock estimates from the American Petroleum Institute (API), US crude oil imports, official crude oil inventories and stock levels, they added. "Brent crude oil could potentially test $90-92 per barrel in overseas trade, with prices likely to remain volatile with a downward bias," said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking.

Tensions between Washington and Tehran remain a key concern for global energy supplies. Iran claimed it launched six drones targeting a US air-defence radar installation at Bahrain's Al-Rifaa base on Sunday. Earlier, US President Donald Trump was considering holding off further attacks against Iran, provided Tehran and Iran-backed Houthi forces do not undertake fresh provocations. Washington, however, continues to maintain its naval blockade of Iranian ports. Analysts said these developments have kept the Strait of Hormuz in focus, as disruptions along the routes could affect global energy flows.

On the Multi Commodity Exchange, crude oil futures for November delivery fell Rs 185, or 2.16 per cent, over the past week to close at Rs 8,369 per barrel. The December contract declined Rs 196, or 2.31 per cent, to settle at Rs 8,282 per barrel. The weakness was also reflected in overseas markets. Brent crude futures for January delivery slipped $2.48, or 2.52 per cent, during the week to close at USD 95.84 per barrel on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE). West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US benchmark, fell $2.27, or 2.5 per cent, to finish at $88.56 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX).

Mishra said that crude oil is increasingly shifting from a geopolitical risk-driven market to one dominated by supply-demand fundamentals. Brent has slipped below $96 per barrel for a second consecutive weekly decline, as higher OPEC+ production, a larger-than-expected build-up in US inventories and expectations of global supply surplus outweighed persistent tensions in West Asia, he said. The OPEC-plus output rose by nearly 1.96 million barrels per day in October, while US crude inventories increased by 4.66 million barrels. OPEC+ is an expanded coalition of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and ten major non-OPEC oil-producing nations, including Russia.

While the Strait of Hormuz remains a potential trigger for supply disruptions, the immediate shortage premium is gradually unwinding, Mishra added. For India, he said, a sustained moderation in crude oil prices would be positive for inflation, the rupee, the current account and corporate earnings.