Citi Research raised its Nifty 50 target to 28,000 by end-2027, expecting a 12% upside. The firm said, "Our analysis suggests a 100 bps increase in India active weight could drive $12 billion of inflows." Easing oil prices and reduced AI investments helped the market rally after a recent downturn.
Synopsis
Citi Research has raised its Nifty 50 target to 28,000 by end-2027, implying 12% upside, citing easing oil prices, stronger foreign inflows and a possible rotation away from AI-heavy investments. The brokerage also sees scope for $12 billion in foreign inflows as global investors increase their exposure to Indian equities.
After Nifty rallied a whopping 9% in just one week, international brokerage firm Citi Research issued a bullish note, raising its target to 28,000 points by end-2027 amid multiple tailwinds.
Citi’s target of 28,000 implies around 12% jump from Nifty’s previous closing level below 25,000 when the market slipped slightly during the special Muhurat Trading session on Sunday. Prior to that, the market was rallying for six consecutive days, clawing back some of the ground lost to the overall downturn this year so far.
India faces $12 billion of inflows, says Citi
The Indian stock market had been lagging global peers until recently as the AI frenzy and surging oil prices triggered worries for the world's third-largest oil importer. However, as the AI frenzy fizzled out and oil prices eased, along with FIIs increasing their purchases after a prolonged selloff, the Indian stock market sharply rallied.
"Over the past two years, AI has crowded out almost everything else. Our analysis suggests a 100 bps increase in India active weight could drive $12 billion of inflows," Reuters quoted Citi in its India equity strategy note dated November 8.
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Citi on Trump's midterm loss and impact on India
The sentiment was further boosted after US President Donald Trump’s loss in the US midterm elections fuelled expectations of slower AI-related capital expenditure and lower oil prices, on hopes for an end to the conflict involving Iran.
The international brokerage noted that post US mid-terms, risks of an increased pace of data center moratoriums aided rotation into other assets, which could continue to benefit India. Foreign investors have bought Indian shares worth over $4.1 billion so far in November, already their biggest monthly inflows since September 2024.
Citi raised its price-to-earnings multiple for Nifty 50 to 18x from 17x, leading to the target of 28,000 points, Reuters reported. It earlier had expected the Indian benchmark index at 26,000 by September 2027.
"Lower oil price could help India's macro and earnings assumptions. A $10 (per barrel) lower oil price would help (current account deficit) by 30-40 bps and inflation by 50 bps," the brokerage firm said.
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