Buying gold or silver this Diwali? Which precious metal offers bigger upside in Samvat 2083? Check targets, strategy

Diwali 2026: Gold and silver have traditionally occupied a special place in Indian households, particularly during Diwali, when buying precious metals is associated with prosperity and new beginnings.

But beyond their festive significance, the two metals also attract investors looking to diversify portfolios, preserve wealth and hedge against economic uncertainty. Their performance, however, is shaped by a complex mix of global interest rates, inflation, currency movements, geopolitical developments and investment demand.

After a volatile year for bullion, investors will be watching these factors closely as they assess whether gold or silver offers a more attractive opportunity in the coming months. Religare Broking's Diwali 2026 report outlines accumulation zones, price targets and key support levels for both metals.

Gold and silver outlook: What will drive bullion prices?

Gold witnessed significant volatility in 2026, touching a record high of approximately $5,595 per ounce in January before undergoing a sharp correction. The initial rally was supported by geopolitical uncertainty, strong investment demand and expectations of monetary easing. However, profit-taking, liquidation of leveraged positions, rising bond yields and a strengthening US dollar subsequently weighed on prices.

The US Federal Reserve's policy stance remains an important factor. The central bank raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points in September 2026, taking the target range to 3.75%-4%, before holding rates steady at its October meeting. Two policymakers dissented in favour of another 25-basis-point hike, reflecting concerns over persistent inflation.

A prolonged period of higher interest rates and bond yields could make non-yielding assets such as gold less attractive. Religare Broking said, "A prolonged period of higher interest rates and bond yields could increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold, potentially limiting its near-term upside."

The US dollar has added to the pressure. The US Dollar Index strengthened approximately 3.7% year-to-date as of early November 2026. A stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for investors holding other currencies, potentially affecting international demand. Meanwhile, US headline CPI inflation rose to 3.7% year-on-year in September, compared with 3.5% in August, with higher energy costs contributing to the increase.

Geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing conflict in West Asia, have created another set of opposing forces. Uncertainty and disruptions to energy supplies and shipping routes have supported gold's safe-haven appeal, but higher crude oil prices have also intensified inflation concerns and could delay monetary easing.

Religare Broking said, "While geopolitical uncertainty traditionally enhances gold's safe-haven appeal, the resulting inflationary pressures can also delay monetary easing and keep interest rates elevated. This creates opposing forces for bullion, with the overall price impact depending on the relative strength of safe-haven demand and macroeconomic pressures."

Central-bank purchases and investment flows could provide longer-term support. Net central-bank gold purchases stood at approximately 57 tonnes in the first quarter of 2026 and 289 tonnes in the second quarter, taking first-half purchases to around 346 tonnes. Global gold ETFs also attracted record inflows of $30.7 billion, or 211 tonnes, in the third quarter, following outflows in the second quarter.

Gold price target: Religare's accumulation zone and key levels

Religare Broking has recommended accumulating gold in the ₹1,30,000-1,35,000 per 10 grams range on the domestic market. It has set a first target of ₹1,50,000 and a second target of ₹1,58,000 per 10 grams.

The brokerage has identified ₹1,21,000 per 10 grams as the key support or risk level. It said the positive bias would be negated if gold falls below this level.

The corresponding international levels are an accumulation zone of $3,665-$3,805 per ounce, followed by targets of $4,230 and $4,455 per ounce. The key support or risk level is $3,410 per ounce.

Silver price target: Religare identifies accumulation zone and support

For silver, Religare Broking has recommended an accumulation zone of ₹1,50,000-1,63,000 per kg. The brokerage has set a first target of ₹2,17,000 per kg and a second target of ₹2,55,000 per kg. Its key support or risk level stands at ₹1,09,000 per kg, below which the positive bias would be negated.

On the international market, the corresponding accumulation range is $41.5-$45 per ounce. The brokerage has set targets of $60 and $70 per ounce, with $30 per ounce identified as the key support or risk level.

For investors considering fresh exposure, the distinction between the two metals' recommended levels is important. Gold's accumulation zone is ₹1,30,000-1,35,000 per 10 grams, while silver's is ₹1,50,000-1,63,000 per kg. Both have two price targets and clearly defined support levels that investors can monitor.

Religare Broking said, "Going forward, investment demand is likely to remain an important driver of gold prices, with ETF flows, retail purchases and changing expectations around global monetary policy playing a crucial role."