BSE share price rose 4 percent to ₹3,369 on the National Stock Exchange in Monday’s intraday deals. Motilal Oswal upgraded the stock to 'Buy' with a target price of ₹4,000. The firm said, "BSE's notional average daily turnover stands at ₹213 trillion," expecting further growth as market volumes show recovery.
Share price of BSE Limited was up 4% on the National Stock Exchange in Monday's intra-day deal.
Share price of BSE surged 4 per cent to ₹3,369 on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) in Monday's intraday deals after brokerage firm Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL) upgraded the stock to 'Buy' with a target price of ₹4,000 per share.
The stock price of the exchange and data platform company bounced back 12 per cent from its low of ₹3,000 touched on October 1, 2026. Thus far in the calendar year 2026, BSE outperformed the market by soaring 28 per cent, against a 13 per cent decline in the Nifty 50. The stock hit a 52-week high of ₹4,446.80 on May 27, 2026.
MOFSL upgrades BSE to 'Buy'
"BSE's notional average daily turnover (ADTO) for year-to-date financial year 2026-2027 (YTDFY27) stands at ₹213 trillion and the brokerage firm expects FY27 ADTO to be ₹216 trillion, aided by volume normalization following December 2026. Heightened volatility during that period may lead to a further upgrade to our volume estimates," MOFSL said in the company update.
BSE's futures & options (F&O) notional ADTO surged 85 per cent in October 2026 month-to-date (MTD) vs. the post-closing auction session (CAS) reset in August 2026 (-34 per cent month-on-month (MoM)). With the partial CAS reversal effective December 7, 2026, the recovery has a regulatory catalyst beyond the current volatility-led spike. Analysts at MOFSL expect FY27 ADTO of ₹216 trillion (+16 per cent YoY), with upside potential if the recovery sustains.
While BSE has achieved a 30 per cent plus market share in premium turnover, further market-share expansion remains possible. The premium-to-notional ratio has already climbed to ~14bp from 6-7bp in 2023-24, against 20bp+ for NSE. Further convergence, driven by institutional participation and longer-dated contracts, can deliver meaningful earnings upside over and above volume growth, the brokerage firm said.
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Further, cash market share improved from 7 per cent to 9 per cent, while NSE's listing and the opening of its lock-in in March 2027 offer a further catalyst for turnover. Improving smart-order routing and platform participation strengthens the case for a sustained step-up in cash-market activity with the FY26-28 ADTO compound annual growth rate (CAGR) expected at 30 per cent.
Every incremental rupee of revenue has the potential to deliver healthy profit growth. BSE's earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) margin expanded to 65 per cent plus in FY26 from 9 per cent in FY21, demonstrating the scalability of its model. With margins expected to reach 70 per cent, analysts at MOFSL forecast a 27 per cent FY26-28 profit after tax (PAT) CAGR on 23 per cent revenue CAGR. The variable nature of regulatory costs (55 per cent of opex) provides a degree of insulation against volume slowdowns, it added.
The brokerage firm raised its revenue and PAT estimates by 8 per cent/10 per cent and 10 per cent/12 per cent, respectively, for FY27/FY28, supported by the strong volume run-rate, the likely benefit of the CAS reversal and the benefit of NSE listing on cash volumes. A sustained volume recovery combined with an improving premium-to-notional (P/N) ratio could drive a further 20 per cent increase in FY28E PAT, analysts said. Disclaimer: Views and outlook in this report belong to the brokerages and analysts cited. They do not reflect the views of Business Standard. Readers are advised to exercise discretion.