സ്വർണ്ണവിലയിൽ മാറ്റമുണ്ടാകുമോ? നവംബർ 4-ലെ വിപണി പ്രവചനങ്ങളും നിർണ്ണായക ഘടകങ്ങളും അറിയാം

Gold and silver prices are expected to be in focus again on Wednesday following a decline in oil prices that eased inflation concerns. Investors also watched the fast-approaching festive season and Dhanteras for demand cues. Focus also remained on the US midterm election results and upcoming labour market data for clues on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction.

On the MCX, gold prices ended flat, while silver gained momentum to close higher. As for international prices, spot gold dipped 0.3% to $3,948.75 per ounce, while US gold futures for December delivery gained 0.1% to $3,943.20. Spot silver fell 0.2% to $49.67 per ounce.

The decline in oil prices eased concerns over inflation and strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve may not need to maintain high interest rates for an extended period. This supported demand for gold, which does not offer any yield.

Investors were also preparing for a potentially strong performance by Democrats in Tuesday's US midterm elections, a development that could lead to greater volatility across asset prices. Traders are currently pricing in a 78% probability of a Fed rate hike in December, according to CME's FedWatch tool.

US job openings rose sharply in September, while layoffs declined to their lowest level in 1-1/2 years, indicating that the labour market remained relatively strong despite modest employment growth during the month.

The labour market's resilience, despite uncertainty surrounding the US-Israeli war with Iran, which has entered its ninth month, has given the Federal Reserve greater room to raise interest rates to contain the inflationary impact of the conflict.

Gold outlook for November 4Manoj Kumar Jain of Prithvi Finmart said that any positive developments in US-Iran peace talks following the US midterm elections could provide a significant boost to bullion prices. He expects gold to hold support at $3,800 per troy ounce, while silver is likely to find support at $45 per troy ounce.

He expects gold and silver prices to remain volatile this week amid fluctuations in crude oil prices, movements in the dollar index and ongoing geopolitical tensions. For the day's session, gold has support at 3,914-3,880 per troy ounce and resistance at 3,980-4,000 per troy ounce. Silver has support at 48.80-48.00 per troy ounce, with resistance placed at 50.50-51.80 per troy ounce.

On the MCX, gold has support at Rs 1,38,800-Rs 1,38,000 and resistance at Rs 1,40,000-Rs 1,40,550. Silver has support at Rs 1,77,700-Rs 1,75,000, while resistance is seen at Rs 1,81,400-Rs 1,83,800.

Jain suggested that long-term investors could accumulate gold and silver through systematic investment plans (SIPs) during the current market decline. However, he advised traders to remain cautious ahead of the US midterm elections.

Gold long term outlookIn the international market, Bank of America (BofA) expects gold to remain below $4,000 over the next three months, while forecasting an average price of $4,000 an ounce in the fourth quarter. Its demand tracker points to a 16.6% year-on-year decline in purchases by key buyers. Indian imports fell 77.8%, while Chinese imports increased 39.3%.

Jewellery demand has also weakened. Data from the World Gold Council shows that jewellery demand declined 25% in the US, 15% in India and 28% in China during the second quarter.

Central bank activity presents another potential headwind following a period of strong buying earlier this year. In its October 12 note, BofA flagged the possibility that central banks could turn sellers amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. "With the Middle East conflict escalating again, there is a risk that central banks could resume sales," BofA said, according to a Yahoo Finance report.

The bank pointed to Turkey's net gold sales of 82 tonnes and Russia's 56 tonnes through August, according to the World Gold Council, as examples of this trend.